No one is immune to following the herd...
When I was a resident doing my OB-GYN rotation, the doctor I was learning under was less interested in teaching how to deliver babies... and more interested in showing off how he bought Cisco Systems (CSCO).
And he wasn't the only one by far. In the late 1990s, many of the doctors I worked with at some of the best hospitals in the country often spoke about their big investments in Cisco.
When your doctors, coworkers, and neighbors start to brag about their investments, it's a huge red flag...
At the time, Cisco was reaping the benefits of the dot-com boom. It made the network routers and switches behind the Internet that the dot-com companies operated on.
By 1996, it controlled more than 80% of the router market. With this dominant position, the company enjoyed strong margins and returns on capital.
By early 2000, the dot-com bubble expanded. Telecommunications companies invested in a massive build-out of Internet and broadband networks. And as investors became giddy about astronomical growth, Cisco's price-to-sales ratio soared to 63 times.
Of course, the dot-com bubble burst. And wild spending on expanding the Internet ended. Cisco started losing money, and its valuation collapsed. Shares fell 86% by late 2001...
Despite making great products for the next 25 years, it took that entire time for Cisco to get back to breakeven.
Cisco's peak was when those doctors were bragging about their investments in the late '90s. That sort of hype – when all regular folks can talk about is their portfolios – always makes me nervous.
I've recently said I'm getting more bearish. Despite stocks continuing to hit new highs, there are worrying signs...
Volatility is up... Consumer confidence and sentiment are falling... And inflation is still hurting folks' wallets. A couple of years ago, I could fill up a bag at my local co-op grocery store with healthy, fresh food for $80. Now, it's $150.
Consumers are feeling the strain, and I wouldn't be shocked if investors have started to feel it as well.
In uncertain times, the last thing you want to do is follow whatever the herd is doing. Don't just pile into the stocks everyone is talking about. And don't avoid the markets when everyone is afraid.
This can be tough in practice. But that's where The Total Portfolio can give you an edge...
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Now, let's get to this week's Q&A... And as always, keep sending your comments, questions, and topic suggestions to feedback@healthandwealthbulletin.com. My team and I read every e-mail.
The Pros and Cons of Cologuard
Q: Perhaps this is academic for me, since today is my 75th birthday, but I am wondering what Doc thinks of Cologuard. My wife is a neurologist, and neither of us have ever had a colonoscopy. She doesn't want either of us undergoing a procedure requiring a general anesthetic unless absolutely necessary, so we have opted for regular Cologuard submissions. Neither of us has a history of colon cancer in our families. – S.R.
A: Thanks for your question, S.R. We understand your wife's concerns, as potential complications and side effects from general anesthesia do increase with age.
For those not familiar, Cologuard is an at-home test for blood in your stool that could come from a polyp growth or other cancer cells.
Organizations like the American Cancer Society and U.S. Preventive Services Task Force ("USPSTF") – an independent panel of national experts – recommend people aged 45 to 75 be screened for colon cancer.
The USPSTF lists stool-based tests, like Cologuard, as an approved screening strategy for colorectal cancer. Folks can do this test at home just once every three years. Since they're much less invasive, they hold a lot of promise for those who don't have high-risk factors for colorectal cancer.
However, there's some concern over a higher false-positive rate than you would see with a traditional colonoscopy.
Traditional colonoscopies or sigmoidoscopies require unpleasant preparation drinks and an actual surgical procedure to insert a camera into your body. While it can be rare, that could mean risks of perforation and problems with anesthesia.
However, people with a higher risk of colorectal cancer – like those with inflammatory bowel disease or a family history – still need the higher degree of certainty that a traditional colonoscopy screening provides.
Folks should talk to their doctor to see if they're eligible for a take-home version. Most insurance companies should cover the cost, including Medicare, but call first to make sure.
What We're Reading...
- Did you miss it? How to beat the market – with less volatility.
- Something different: Children are trying to swipe books like phones.
Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,
Dr. David Eifrig and the Health & Wealth Bulletin Research Team
January 30, 2026