Doc's note: If you want to find your next investment, you don't need to dig through a company's financial statements or analyze historical stock charts.
Today, Joe Austin, a senior analyst at our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, explains there's one crucial factor you should look out for that you might be ignoring...
There's no shortage of methods that folks use to get the next big investment idea...
Some people like complex strategies. They run quantitative screens to filter stocks on things like high return on equity, low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, or accelerating earnings growth.
Others use AI to dig through mountains of data – like long regulatory filings and earnings-call transcripts.
When it comes to filings, some folks like to watch for 13-Fs. Those are quarterly reports showing what stocks hedge funds and big money managers own. And if you monitor those over time, you can see what the big buys and sells are.
But there's one approach that's amazingly simple and doesn't require any of that. And it has been great for me over time.
Always take a look when a company names a new CEO.
A new figure at the helm often signals that change is coming. And change can lead to great opportunities for investors.
Sometimes it's a promotion from within. If the company is doing well, the board probably wants to stay the course.
But in other cases, the board will bring in an outsider to shake things up.
And that's happening a lot more than usual these days...
Companies went outside for new CEOs at a record clip in 2025, with external hires hitting 33%. That's the biggest share in eight years. And it's nearly double the 18% from 2024.
Meanwhile, CEO successions at top-performing S&P 500 Index companies hit 12% in 2025. Among the weakest performers, the rate was only slightly higher at 14%.
That means even strong companies are making moves to shake up leadership.
So using the "new CEO" approach can give investors plenty of ideas to work with. Good boards will never elect a person who isn't qualified for the job. But how the new CEO performs will determine results for investors...
A Leadership Change at Intel Led to a Huge Surge for Its Stock
Not long ago, Intel (INTC) was a mess...
In October 2024, the tech giant posted the biggest quarterly loss in its history – a staggering $16.6 billion.
Revenues for the full year ended up coming in at a little more than $53 billion. That was down about 33% from roughly $79 billion in 2021.
And worst of all, Intel was losing its lead in chip manufacturing.
By early 2025, it struggled with yields of only about 10% on its latest-generation chips. Meanwhile, rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) saw yields of more than 60%.
Manufacturing had always been Intel's superpower. But it was starting to look like a liability.
By early 2025, INTC shares had fallen from a high of about $68 in 2021 to around $18. That's a drop of 73%.
The stock collapsed by roughly 60% in 2024 alone.
In March 2025, Intel's board made a change...
It hired Lip-Bu Tan – the man who ran Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) for more than a decade – as its new CEO.
Under Tan's leadership at Cadence, CDNS shares rose more than 3,200%. So he had a proven track record.
And Tan got right to work...
He wanted a brutal cost reduction. He announced plans to cut 24,000 jobs in 2025 – roughly a quarter of Intel's workforce.
He also instituted programs to reduce operating expenses by $17 billion. And he canceled plans to build two new factories in Germany and Poland.
Meanwhile, Tan brought in three new investors into Intel – the U.S. government for $8.9 billion, chip titan Nvidia (NVDA) for $5 billion, and Japan-based tech conglomerate SoftBank for $2 billion.
With the Nvidia announcement, Intel's stock surged by nearly 23% in a single day. That marked its biggest gain since 1987.
Tan also began a turnaround in Intel's manufacturing operations. As the year progressed, yields on Intel's most advanced chips went from 10% to nearly 70%.
And Intel's stock soared. It jumped by 84% in 2025.
But not all new CEOs have such great success so quickly...
Starbucks Is Still Trying to Right the Ship
In 2024, coffee giant Starbucks (SBUX) hired Brian Niccol as its new CEO.
Niccol had been Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) CEO since 2018. Under his tenure, revenues more than doubled and profits rose by 7 times.
It's no surprise that Chipotle's stock boomed. As my colleague Ethan Goldman noted in a Chaikin PowerFeed essay last year...
From the day Chipotle announced that Niccol would be joining the company to the day it announced his departure, CMG shares soared an incredible 927%.
Investors initially liked the move. As Ethan also pointed out...
When news broke that he would be joining Starbucks, [SBUX shares] surged by roughly 25% in one day.
Starbucks had huge problems waiting for Niccol. He was the company's fourth CEO in two years.
In the most recent quarter before Niccol took the helm, Starbucks' same-store sales had shrunk by 3%. And during the previous CEO's tenure leading up to the new leadership announcement, the stock had fallen more than 20%.
Activist investors Starboard Value and Elliott Investment Management both had also taken large positions in the company. And they were pushing for change.
Niccol had plenty of work to do to get things back on track...
He announced plans to cut 1,100 corporate jobs. In stores, he set a goal of a four-minute wait time for orders. And he got rid of a surcharge for non-milk substitutions that was unpopular with customers.
In November 2025, Starbucks said it would sell 60% of its China operations to a private-equity firm. This cut what had become a drag on earnings in a brutally competitive market, while keeping some future upside for the company.
One year into the job, the turnaround looked shaky...
Through early September of last year, same-store sales still hadn't recovered... and the stock was down 7% since Niccol had taken over. Over the same time frame, the S&P 500 rose 19%.
In the most recent quarter, things looked slightly better. Starbucks' North American same-store sales finally rose 4%, while international same-store sales were up 5%.
That marked the first increase in eight quarters for North American stores.
So for Starbucks, the jury is still out. But some important numbers are moving in the right direction.
Look for New CEO Announcements
Not every new CEO quickly turns a company around – or turns it around at all. The Intel and Starbucks stories show how differently these situations can play out.
But in both cases, the hiring triggered real change. And when things get shaken up, prices move, strategies shift, and opportunities appear.
So the next time you see a CEO announcement, don't scroll past it. That's where the story starts.
And you don't need a complex quant screen or an AI model to spot it.
The screen is free. The signal is real.
You still have to do the digging... but at least you know where to start.
Good investing,
Joe Austin
Editor's note: Longtime readers know I don't think having wealth should mean spending hours of your time sitting in front of a screen analyzing stocks.
Marc Chaikin – founder of Chaikin Analytics – built a set of quantitative tools specifically to help individual investors "crack" the market. He calls it the "Power Gauge."
It looks at 20 quantitative factors, covering everything from price performance... to fundamentals... to insider buying trends... to expert consensus. It helps you see which stocks are good buys and which ones you should probably avoid. With the Power Gauge, you have access to key data that lets you compete with the pros.
And today, Marc is using his Power Gauge to help folks navigate the "devastating bear market ahead." If you want to shield – and potentially even double your wealth – click here to learn more.
