Longtime readers know I don't like to make bold predictions about the markets or the economy.
For the most part, grand calls are useless.
I've seen far too many people trust these outlandish predictions only for them not to work out. The average person will end up losing money. And the expert who made the prediction will just move on to their next big marketing pitch.
I, instead, want to position my portfolio for just about every outcome... Don't time. Tilt.
This is a phrase I use often. In other words, don't try to time big market moves with an "all or nothing" decision. Simply adjust your allocations. It's that easy.
With that said, while I typically stay away from big predictions, I did go on record with a bold call back in 2022. I warned readers about the death of the "60/40" portfolio.
You've probably heard about the 60/40 allocation for your entire adult life: Put 60% of your investment portfolio in stocks and the other 40% in bonds.
In normal market conditions, that traditional allocation works great. The stocks provide growth but greater risk, and they're balanced against the safety of modest, predictable bond yields.
But sometimes, this rigid model is a disaster for your retirement... You could spend a lifetime squirreling away your savings in a 60/40 allocation, only to come up short if the markets turn against you just before you retire.
As you can see below, the 60/40 portfolio has experienced several "lost decades" since 1900.
You can do better.
That's why my team and I created the Intelligent Retirement model.
This proprietary tool identifies the ideal asset allocation for every market condition. Sometimes, the models call for a higher percentage of gold as protection from volatility. Other times, it calls for a higher percentage of your portfolio in real estate investment trusts ("REITs") to hedge against inflation.
The ideal allocation depends entirely on outside market factors. And those change all the time.
So we designed our model to be flexible – ready for inflation, recessions, bull markets, stagflation, deflation... everything. At the same time, we designed it to still do well in bull markets, so we're not sacrificing outsized stock returns.
We update our allocations every quarter to adjust to what the market is showing us. And so far, my crusade against the traditional 60/40 portfolio has paid off...
Since 2021, our model has returned more than 49%, while the 60/40 portfolio has returned 36%. That's a difference of 13 percentage points. And this outperformance is nothing new, either.
As you can see below, our model has beat the classic method for years...
Right now, our model has most of its portfolio in stocks. But it's also keeping us diversified among other asset classes like REITs, gold, and corporate bonds.
Diversification is the key to managing volatile markets. But again, situations change, so you don't just want to hold defensive positions like bonds in a ripping stock market.
You need to be intelligent about the risks of what comes next... and find the right times to own the right assets to maximize your gains. Our Intelligent Retirement model helps you do that.
Existing Income Intelligence subscribers can view our current allocations here.
And if you want to learn how to manage your allocations better for retirement but aren't subscribed to Income Intelligence yet, you can click here to learn more.
What We're Reading...
- For subscribers only... The Intelligent Retirement Handbook.
- Something different: Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh filings detail vast wealth, far exceeding past chairs.
Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,
Dr. David Eifrig and the Health & Wealth Bulletin Research Team
April 15, 2026