Talking heads pitched it as an inexplicable phenomenon...
By the fall, the U.S. stock market was solidly positive for the year. But the much bigger winners were precious metals – namely, gold and silver.
"How the heck could that happen?" the pundits asked. Precious metals are supposed to rise when folks are scared... But that doesn't happen to stocks. The two shouldn't rise together.
Thus, the impossible situation...
The problem is, the data doesn't agree with what "everybody" knows. Stocks rise alongside precious metals more often than you might think. And in 2025, stocks, gold, and silver all soared double digits.
What does that mean for 2026? The answer might surprise you... But history shows we can expect more gains for all three assets.
Let me explain...
Four Decades of Data Point to Continued Gains in 2026
The talking heads in finance seem to have a mantra: Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
A good story gets attention. Who cares if it's built on a faulty premise?
Well, it matters to me. I operate on data. And when it comes to stocks and precious metals, the data disagrees with the narrative.
Let's start by looking at what happened last year. As I said, stocks, gold, and silver all soared. Take a look...
Stocks had another successful run. They jumped double digits for the third straight year.
But precious metals did even better... with gold rising more than 60% and silver more than doubling.
Pundits would tell you this is unthinkable. But it's not that rare...
Over the past 40 years, we've seen all three assets rise by 10% or more eight times. So this "impossible" setup has happened about 20% of the time. That's far from unusual.
With that knowledge, it's still worth asking what tends to happen next. And the answer is good news for all three investments. Take a look...
When stocks and precious metals both win, they tend to keep winning.
For stocks, these setups led to 2.9% gains over six months and 11.7% gains over a year. That's better than the typical annual return of 9.1%. Not only that, but stocks were higher a year later 86% of the time.
The story is even better for gold. History shows the metal rallied 6.9% over six months and 21.6% over a year. That's more than triple gold's typical one-year return of 6.7%. And like stocks, gold rose 86% of the time after these setups.
But silver takes the crown, with six-month gains of 5.5% and one-year gains of 29.9% following these setups. Silver's typical one-year return is just 6.2%. So this is massive outperformance. And the metal was up a year later 71% of the time.
In all three cases, we see a common theme. When stocks and precious metals perform well together... they tend to keep performing well.
Folks don't know that unless they study the data. They think stocks shouldn't rise when gold and silver rise. That's dead wrong.
Instead, this "rare" setup isn't rare at all. But it does tell us that we can expect all three assets to keep rising in 2026.
Good investing,
Brett Eversole
Further Reading
"We've seen a shift unlike anything I've witnessed in my 15-plus years of investing in natural resources," Nick Hodge writes. Governments, institutions, and megafunds are all realizing the importance of metals. But the market still isn't pricing in what's next, leaving investors one last chance to join the rush.
"In a bull market, overcomplicating is your enemy," Brett says. After long rallies, it's common for investors to start looking for reasons to worry. They make moves they shouldn't by trying to outsmart the market. Right now, you just want to make sure you're along for the ride.