Every Thanksgiving, there's a moment – somewhere between the stuffing and the second slice of pie – when the dinner table becomes the most honest focus group in America.
I've already had a preview this year...
At a recent family gathering, my mother-in-law leaned over her plate, lowered her voice, and said, "OK, how are you actually using artificial intelligence?"
I expected silence. Instead, my brother-in-law – a contractor who still refuses to update his iPhone – admitted he used AI to sketch a kitchen redesign blueprint. My sister said she used it to find cheap flights.
Then, my mother – who still calls every app "the Google" – surprised the entire table...
"I had it rewrite an e-mail to the HOA board."
We all burst into laughter.
If this is what I'm already hearing at pre-holiday gatherings, imagine what's about to unfold at millions of Thanksgiving tables next week.
That'll be the real "channel check" – not Wall Street or surveys.
And if you're paying attention, those conversations will reveal what people actually value, what they fear, and where they plan to spend their money next year.
A Preview of Future Trends
Forget Black Friday deals and consumer-sentiment indexes.
If you really want to understand where the market is heading in 2026, all you need is five minutes at your family's Thanksgiving table.
Those unfiltered holiday conversations can clue you into...
- How people are actually using technology
- Where families are cutting back
- Which upgrades they're planning next
- And what big purchases they're delaying
These are early signals of what investors need to know most.
Here are some of the conversations you might hear this year – and what they could mean for your investment dollars...
1. AI is now fully mainstream – and the upgrade cycle proves it.
You'll probably see relatives passing around their new iPhone 17s, showing off camera tricks and real-time AI features.
Apple is taking on the biggest upgrade wave in years. And it's happening in part because everyday consumers are finally getting real value from AI, not just novelty.
Folks are using AI to visualize their ideas, make travel plans, create polished letters and presentations, and make their lives easier overall – just like my family told me they were.
Meanwhile, you might also hear someone say at the table, "Look at what I made with Sora"...
OpenAI's generative-AI video tool is already taking TikTok's place as the "show-and-tell moment" at family gatherings.
This shows the investment opportunity in generative AI is picking up steam. As a survey from earlier this year shows, the number of U.S. consumers regularly using or experimenting with generative AI has exploded since last year – up to 53% from 38% in 2024.
2. Streaming fatigue is turning into a cancellation wave.
You might also hear someone mention that they're finally cutting a streaming service.
They won't be alone.
A recent survey shows 65% of consumers canceled at least one streaming platform last year. It's a rolling wave of consolidation... as one household at a time scales back on streaming services.
Investors tend to forget about this storyline. But many households are losing patience with the fragmented, expensive streaming landscape.
The most recent example was a messy YouTube blackout. More than 20 Disney-owned channels were taken down from YouTube TV, including popular sports network ESPN. Disney and YouTube parent company Alphabet battled over rates for two weeks before finally announcing a deal last Friday.
For consumers, the message is clear: "Enough apps. Enough bills. Something has to go."
And for investors, pure-play streaming businesses are looking a lot less attractive today.
Focus on What Isn't Discussed
Here's the most important part of your Thanksgiving "channel check"...
Listen for what doesn't come up.
Nobody is arguing about mortgage rates... And most people aren't spiraling about inflation, recession odds, or crypto crashes.
The silence on these once-urgent topics means they're no longer "crisis decisions." They've become the "status quo."
The markets and the economy have felt unpredictable this year. But families have largely adapted to the new baseline, with some exceptions. And when households stop obsessing over macro topics at the dinner table, it usually means we've moved out of panic mode and into the "live with it" phase.
Americans are still spending. They're just spending differently than before.
And that transition creates a specific kind of market environment...
People aren't retreating – they're reprioritizing. They're not scared of technology – they're folding it into daily life. And they aren't canceling everything – they're just making room for what matters (and looking for a better deal).
This is the 2026 playbook.
And the winners (and losers) will be businesses positioned (or not) for this shift...
Infrastructure providers – companies powering everyday AI instead of betting on a single killer app – will profit as AI blends into our everyday lives.
Meanwhile, pure-play streaming businesses like Netflix (NFLX) could feel some pain.
Good investing is about noticing the present before everyone else does.
And this Thanksgiving, if you listen closely, the conversations around your dinner table will tell you exactly what's coming next.
Good investing,
Josh Baylin
Editor's note: The smart way to capitalize on AI isn't to speculate or bet on the next "hot stock" to shoot higher... It's making AI work for you. And today, our colleague Whitney Tilson is opening up access to our firm's breakthrough system that can help you do just that – and potentially turn every $100,000 into $339,000.
Further Reading
"When a tool perfectly solves yesterday's problem, that means it's probably about to become irrelevant," Josh writes. Over and over again, we see the same pattern – a tool hits peak functionality, then becomes obsolete. And in this age of AI disruption, one simple test can help you identify which companies are poised for growth.
"The more our virtual worlds grow, the more people will crave the real one," Josh says. The goal of virtual reality is to replace reality itself. But the wealthy who can afford this high-end tech have rejected it in favor of authentic experiences. And that could be a sign that we're shifting away from the virtual world.
