It always amazes me how quickly a new market narrative can explode on the scene... then fall away just as fast.
November began with everyone asking whether we were in an artificial-intelligence ("AI") bubble. Then, as prices fell, folks questioned whether the bubble pop was underway.
Once prices reversed, the fear eased. We then saw a massive rally the week of Thanksgiving. And stocks have hit new highs since then.
History tells us we'll see even more new highs soon. That's because this kind of Thanksgiving-week rally is rare. And it points to a continued bull market, with 17% upside potential over the next year.
Stocks Are Headed for New Highs
Prices tend to drive narratives. When stocks are falling, fears about a bust gain traction. But then markets recover... and those fears seem foolish.
We've seen this back-and-forth in recent weeks. November sent stocks into their first meaningful decline since the tariff-induced near-bear market in April.
But then, we had a strong Thanksgiving week. And it propelled stocks to new highs again. Take a look...
November saw a quick fall followed by a quick recovery. Most of the recovery happened during the week of Thanksgiving. And that's important – because it points to more upside from here.
The S&P 500 Index gained 3.7% that week. This was a rare rally... and it's one that matters.
Over nearly a century of history, we've only seen five other 3%-plus Thanksgiving-week rallies. These setups tend to signal more upside ahead and major outperformance over the next year. Take a look...
We just lived through the largest Thanksgiving-week rally since 2018. And history shows we can expect big gains as a result.
Stocks have gone up 6.3% per year since 1928. But setups like this one have led to gains of 3.9% in six months and 16.8% over a year. That's nearly triple the typical buy-and-hold performance over one year.
Stocks were also higher a year later in every individual setup. And that tells us a strong Thanksgiving week isn't something to ignore... Instead, it's a reason to stay bullish.
We're close to finishing a third straight year of 20%-plus gains for U.S. stocks. Folks are worried we're in an AI bubble... and wondering whether it's about to pop. But according to this setup, the stock market gains aren't over yet.
So please, don't succumb to fear. Stocks are rising, and history shows they should keep rising. That means you want to stay long.
Good investing,
Brett Eversole
Editor's note: Lots of folks are looking at this AI boom thinking they missed it... and that they're too late to profit. But Brett says your chance to make money isn't over. In fact, he says we could be headed for one of the greatest moneymaking eras in decades. It's the best "second chance" you'll get – but the window to get in won't stay open forever.
Further Reading
One of America's most famous investors is giving up on the AI trend. But it's tough to call the exact top of a bull market. And despite a rough patch for stocks in November, it looks like this investor called the top too early – which means this bull market could still have room to run.
Some folks are claiming that today's AI models are as good as they'll get. But one tech giant just proved we're nowhere near the limit of what AI models can do... or how much they can scale. And that means we're still just scratching the surface of what's possible with AI.