Highlights from 101 first-quarter 13-Fs; Check out my latest interview; My first use of ChatGPT – it helped me plan a trip itinerary

By Whitney Tilson
Published May 17, 2024 |  Updated May 17, 2024

1) Some of the world's best investors believe Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL) still have upside ahead...

And I agree. For more than five years, I've been consistently bullish on these three big tech stocks.

I first recommended Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet as long-term core holdings to subscribers of my former newsletter Empire Investment Report in our inaugural issue on April 17, 2019, back at my old firm Empire Financial Research.

It has been a great call – these stocks are up 98%, 165%, and 183%, respectively, since then. Those gains far outpace the 83% return of the S&P 500 Index over the same time frame.

And of course, as I said, I'm not alone in liking these stocks...

Some of the greatest investors in the world were buying them last quarter.

That's according to their 13-F filings, which institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets under management have to file every quarter. These filings disclose their long positions in equities.

As background, one important way I find great stock ideas is by talking to or following the smartest investors in the world.

I read dozens of investors' letters, follow a handful who have blogs, attend numerous conferences (including my own, the Value Investing Seminar, which is coming up on July 4 and July 5 in Trani, Italy), and review 13-F filings.

Now, keep in mind that 13-Fs don't disclose the "why" behind these institutional investors' moves. And due to the timing of when they have to be filed (within 45 days after the end of the quarter), 13-Fs might be showing moves that happened weeks or months ago.

But despite these limitations, 13-Fs are still useful for regular folks. They're a snapshot for what the "smart money" on Wall Street is up to.

Earlier this week, my friend Scott Tashman of Outset Global Trading sent me a summary of the first-quarter 13-Fs for 101 of the largest, best-known money managers and firms.

Below are screenshots from Scott's list for the ones I follow most closely and know personally (the other 93 are at the end of this e-mail):

Seth Klarman:

Warren Buffett (and Ted Weschler and Todd Combs):

Philippe Laffont:

Larry Robbins:

Bill Ackman:

Michael Burry:

Jeff Smith:

Dan Loeb:

As I scan these, here's what catches my eye:

  • As I hinted at earlier, Dan Loeb established a new position in one of my favorite stocks, Alphabet, while Seth Klarman and Philippe Laffont added to their positions.

    Loeb also added to positions in my other two favorites among the "Magnificent Seven" – Amazon and Meta.

  • Bill Ackman exited Lowe's (LOW) after six years, banking a $1.3 billion profit, to free up capital for new investments and because of concerns about an "uncertain near-term earnings trajectory."

    I'll also add that Ackman's 13-F is notable for its lack of activity – the key to long-term investment success. His latest annual letter is posted here.

  • I was surprised to see that Seth Klarman bought more Herbalife (HLF) – the subject of Ackman's famous, ill-fated activist short campaign that cost him $1 billion, despite ultimately being proven correct (the stock is down more than 80% over the past three years).

    I understand the appeal – Herbalife generates a lot of cash flow and the stock looks cheap – but I wouldn't touch this with a 10-foot pole. Multilevel marketing businesses (and their stocks) are prone to a "pop and drop" phenomenon, and generally don't recover after a drop.

  • Speaking of bottom-fishing, Laffont is doing a lot of it – buying PayPal (PYPL), Nikola (NKLA), Lucid (LCID), Peloton (PTON), and Plug Power (PLUG) (a ridiculous long-running stock promotion I've been warning my readers about for years).

    I think PayPal and Peloton are interesting stocks, but the other three should be avoided at all costs.

2) I just did a 19-minute interview on Money Life With Chuck Jaffe earlier this week.

As longtime readers know, I've appeared on the podcast a few times over the years. And in this one, I outlined the reasons I remain constructive on stocks: a strong economy, robust corporate profits, low unemployment, and benign inflation.

As such, despite the market regularly hitting all-time highs and the foolishness like the "meme stock" frenzy earlier this week, I also explained that I'm holding on and letting my winners run.

You can listen to the Money Life episode right here (my portion starts at 16:53).

3) In yesterday's e-mail, I also wrote about artificial intelligence ("AI")... But I confessed that I haven't yet fully figured out a way to use AI in my life.

To rectify this, I signed up for the new GPT-4o (which costs $20 per month) and asked it to help plan a four-day trip to Scotland with my parents at the beginning of next month. My initial query was:

Develop a fun, active trip to Scotland, arriving in Edinburgh the night of June 2, departing the morning of June 6.

It spit out some great ideas... but had us doing long day trips, returning to Edinburgh each night. So I refined my query:

Develop a fun, active trip in Scotland, arriving in Edinburgh the night of June 2, spending the night of June 3 near Rothiemurchus, the night of June 4 near Inverness, the night of June 5 in Glasgow, flying back to London the morning of June 6.

Within seconds, it generated this:

Here's a fun and active itinerary for your trip to Scotland:

June 2: Arrival in Edinburgh

  • Evening: Arrive in Edinburgh and check into your accommodation.
  • Dinner: Enjoy a traditional Scottish meal at a local pub or restaurant.
  • Night: Explore Edinburgh's historic streets and perhaps take a walk around the Royal Mile.

June 3: Edinburgh to Rothiemurchus

  • Morning: Explore Edinburgh Castle and take in the panoramic views of the city.
  • Late Morning: Drive to Rothiemurchus (approx. 2.5 hours).
  • Afternoon: Arrive in Rothiemurchus. Visit the Rothiemurchus Estate, where you can enjoy activities like:
    • Archery
    • Clay pigeon shooting
    • Walking or cycling trails
  • Evening: Check into your accommodation near Rothiemurchus.
  • Dinner: Enjoy dinner at a local restaurant or your accommodation.

June 4: Rothiemurchus to Inverness

  • Morning: Go for a guided wildlife tour or a scenic walk around Loch an Eilein.
  • Late Morning: Drive to Inverness (approx. 1 hour).
  • Afternoon: Explore Inverness. Visit Inverness Castle, take a walk along the River Ness, and perhaps visit the Inverness Botanic Gardens.
  • Evening: Check into your accommodation near Inverness.
  • Dinner: Dine at a local restaurant in Inverness.

June 5: Inverness to Glasgow

  • Morning: Drive to Urquhart Castle (approx. 30 minutes) and explore the ruins and beautiful views of Loch Ness.
  • Late Morning: Continue your drive to Glasgow (approx. 3.5 hours).
  • Afternoon: Arrive in Glasgow and visit some of the city's attractions such as:
    • Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum
    • Glasgow Cathedral and the Necropolis
  • Evening: Check into your accommodation in Glasgow.
  • Dinner: Enjoy a meal at one of Glasgow's many excellent restaurants.

June 6: Departure from Glasgow

  • Morning: Fly back to London.

This is amazing!

My parents and I are going to go through this carefully and probably will change a number of things... but it's a great start.

If you're looking to plan an itinerary for a potential trip, give it a try for a good starting point!

Best regards,

Whitney

P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.

P.P.S. Here's the rest of the list from Scott on the first-quarter 13-Fs:

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