I'm not betting against America; Trump will inherit a 'remarkable economy'; Ad spending on my three favorite tech giants; Rubbing elbows with Floyd Mayweather
1) It's the obvious news on everyone's mind...
Donald Trump accomplished a narrow but convincing win in the presidential election. The full count isn't complete, but he'll likely win the popular vote and sweep all seven swing states.
In addition, Republicans took control of the Senate by defending their current seats and flipping seats in several other states. Meanwhile, control of the House won't be known for sure for a few days... but the betting sites think Republicans have a very strong chance of holding the majority there as well.
I keep my personal politics out of my daily e-mails, so today I'll instead focus on the economic and investment implications of what happened last night.
First and foremost, the possibility of a contested election that would have led to uncertainty, protests, and even violence looks to be off the table – and for that, we should all be grateful.
Second, I have a strong message to Democrats who are distraught by the outcome: run, don't walk, to read yesterday's e-mail, in which I wrote at length about the importance of not letting your politics affect your investment decision making.
I would ask those folks to remember how they felt when something very similar happened eight years ago... They were probably worried that Trump was going to crash the economy and the stock market and that the country would collapse.
Well, that clearly didn't happen... So if folks had run out and sold their stocks because of these fears, they would have lost out on a nearly 80% gain in the S&P 500 Index in the wake of Trump's previous election win and during his presidency. That's right – the market nearly doubled, despite the COVID-19 crash.
So my message today is the same...
America is a great country and our economy is doing well (as I discussed in my October 30 e-mail), especially when compared to our economic peers (as I discussed the next day).
There are plenty of stocks that are likely to benefit from a Trump presidency, and my team and I are committed to finding the best ones for our subscribers at Stansberry's Investment Advisory. (If you aren't already a subscriber, you can find out how to become one as part of a special presentation right here.)
I'll repeat what I said last week... Don't bet against America!
2) For more on how strong our economy is, see this article in last week's Wall Street Journal: The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy. Excerpt:
Whoever wins the White House next week will take office with no shortage of challenges, but at least one huge asset: an economy that is putting its peers to shame.
With another solid performance in the third quarter, the U.S. has grown 2.7% over the past year. It is outrunning every other major developed economy, not to mention its own historical growth rate.
More impressive than the rate of growth is its quality. This growth didn't come solely from using up finite supplies of labor and other resources, which could fuel inflation. Instead, it came from making people and businesses more productive...
Why is the U.S. outperforming the eurozone? The article continues:
Read the recent report by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on European competitiveness. In explaining why Europe lags behind, it reveals why the U.S. leads.
One reason is the domestic energy supply, which insulated the U.S. from the surge in natural-gas prices that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. European Union companies still pay two to three times more for electricity and four to five times more for natural gas than their U.S. counterparts, Draghi found.
More important is the role of technology. No EU company worth more than 100 billion euros, equivalent to $108 billion, "has been set up from scratch in the last 50 years," while all six U.S. companies worth more than $1.08 trillion were created in this period, Draghi said. America's companies are also faster to adopt technology such as artificial intelligence, which explains much higher productivity in professional services, finance, insurance, and information technology services.
These differences are mostly the product of the intrinsic dynamism of American capitalism rather than any president's policies.
3) As an example of stocks that I think will continue to do well going forward, look no further than my long-time three favorite tech giants – Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN) – whose strong third-quarter earnings I analyzed last Wednesday and Friday.
The below chart from this post on X earlier this week shows how these companies have been hoovering up ad spending in the past three years (note that Google and YouTube are owned by Alphabet):
I don't think anything is going to derail these juggernauts, so their stocks should continue to outperform going forward.
4) To end today on a lighter note, here's a funny story from Monday evening – when I celebrated my 58th birthday with my family with courtside seats at the Brooklyn Nets NBA game (see pictures in yesterday's e-mail)...
Seated just to my left was this guy:
I had no idea who he was, but I figured he must be famous because fans behind us were talking to him... he was wearing massive amounts of jewelry... and when he pulled out a leather bag to tip the person bringing him food and drinks, I saw in it more rolls of $100 bills than I had ever seen.
At one point, he turned to me and asked how I came to be sitting courtside. I said my daughter knew someone at the Nets and got us these seats for my birthday. He smiled and said, "Happy birthday!"
I then said, "You must be famous, but I have to admit I don't know who you are."
He said, "No, I'm not famous."
I knew he was pulling my leg, so I gave him my I-wasn't-born-yesterday look and said, "Well, the fans behind you think you're famous!"
He smiled and said, "I own real estate."
I asked, "Here in Brooklyn?"
He replied, "No, all over the city. In fact, I just bought 60 buildings."
I then joked back, "Wow! I hope you don't own commercial real estate..."
An hour later, as we were leaving, the fan who was behind us said to me, "Do you know who that was?"
When I said no, he said, "Floyd Mayweather!"
I don't know much about boxing, but knew that name...
Mayweather's incredible boxing career spanned two decades, and he retired with an undefeated record... and he won 15 major world championships across five different weight classes.
At one point a few years ago, Mayweather was even the highest-paid athlete in the world.
And he wasn't lying about buying buildings, as this recent article in Black Enterprise notes: Floyd Mayweather Inks Monumental $402M Real Estate Deal To Acquire Over 60 Affordable Housing Buildings In NYC. Excerpt:
Floyd Mayweather is making a big move in New York City after signing a substantial real estate deal to acquire more than 60 buildings in the Big Apple for an impressive $402 million.
Acquiring over 1,000 affordable housing units in the leading U.S. market showcases the dreams Mayweather has turned into reality since his dominance in the boxing industry and his ongoing success as a business mogul. According to The Real Deal, this multifamily acquisition focused on properties in Upper Manhattan would rank among the city's largest deals this year.
And as the article continues:
It's a full-circle moment for the boxing legend, who grew up in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and has spoken openly about once living "seven deep" in a one-bedroom in New Brunswick, New Jersey, as a child...
Despite his rise from humble beginnings, Mayweather's career earnings have reached the billions, positioning him among the world's wealthiest athletes and the richest boxer ever. As of 2024, his net worth is estimated at $1.2 billion.
Silly me... I should have asked someone who he was – then I could have had a better conversation with him!
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.