I'm still overall bullish; Charlie Munger's Life Was About Way More Than Money; Whitney Tilson: From Wall Street to Experiencing the World; Core PCE down to 3.5%; The housing market isn't crashing; An important message from my cousin

1) My bullish perspective on the market that I've had for the past year was validated again last month, as the S&P 500 Index gained 9% – bringing its year-to-date gains to 19%. It's now within nearly 2% of its all-time high, reached in the first few days in 2022.

Interestingly, however, the average stock is barely up this year – after a hideous drop last year – so I'm on the hunt for bargains in the market.

In fact, today is a big day for that...

As regular readers know, as part of Empire Financial Research merging operations with Stansberry Research, I have personally joined Stansberry's flagship newsletter, Stansberry's Investment Advisory, as its lead editor... and the first issue with my contributions and a new stock recommendation is publishing this evening after the market close.

I'm excited to be moving forward with this new chapter – and thrilled that I'll be able to share my best ideas with Investment Advisory subscribers, just as I did with paid-up Empire subscribers.

Paired with the top-notch Investment Advisory team – my colleagues Alan Gula, Mike DiBiase, Bryan Beach, and Bill McGilton – my goal is to continue to deliver one of the best track records in the business.

If you aren't already an Investment Advisory subscriber, you can find out how to put yourself on the list to receive this brand-new issue and recommendation when it publishes – as well as gain access to the entire portfolio of open recommendations – by clicking here.

2) The tributes to Charlie Munger continue to pour in...

I especially enjoyed this one in the Wall Street Journal by author and journalist Jason Zweig: Charlie Munger's Life Was About Way More Than Money. Excerpt:

I had the extraordinary good luck to get to know Charlie Munger in the past two decades. If you think his life was only about piling up money, think again. Few people have ever been wealthier, in all the senses of the word, than Munger was.

Those who know only a little about him think Munger was a paragon of how to pick stocks – which he was. But those who knew him well consider him a moral exemplar – someone who showed how to think clearly, deal fairly, and live fully. He took nothing for granted.

More than almost anyone I've ever known, Munger also possessed what philosophers call epistemic humility: a profound sense of how little anyone can know and how important it is to open and change your mind.

Of course, many people regarded Munger as an arrogant curmudgeon, like a hybrid of Mr. Burns and Grampa Simpson from The Simpsons, who had been handed billions of dollars and one of the biggest microphones in the business world.

"In my whole life nobody has ever accused me of being humble," Munger admitted in 1987. "Although humility is a trait I much admire, I don't think I quite got my full share."

Munger – who graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School without ever earning a college degree – knew perfectly well how smart he was. And it is an understatement to say he didn't suffer fools gladly. In an interview with the WSJ in 2019, he used the phrase "massively stupid" at least seven times to describe other people and even entire professions.

So, as Zweig asks, was Munger a "cocky, cranky old man yelling at the clouds?"

No. If there was one thing Munger knew, it was himself. As he told me in 2014, "Confucius said that real knowledge is knowing the extent of one's ignorance... Knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant."

Munger (and Buffett) called this "the circle of competence" and often pointed out that the diameter of the circle doesn't matter. What does matter is making sure you don't fool yourself into thinking the diameter is wider than it is.

That's why the two men had what they called their "too-hard pile," a mental dustbin into which they threw every investment idea they felt they couldn't understand. That's why Munger said investors should wait years, or decades, for a good idea at a great price – and do nothing the rest of the time.

"Part of the reason I've been a little more successful than most people is I'm good at destroying my own best-loved ideas," Munger told the Journal in 2019. "I knew early in life that that would be a useful knack and I've honed it all these years, so I'm pleased when I can destroy an idea that I've worked very hard on over a long period of time. And most people aren't."

His curiosity and mental agility kept Munger working – and brought people on pilgrimages to see him – until a few days before he died.

He may well have been the busiest near-centenarian in business history. Besides being Buffett's right-hand man, Munger was chairman of legal publisher Daily Journal (DJCO), director of retailing behemoth Costco Wholesale (COST), an active investor in Chinese companies and a partner in one of Southern California's biggest apartment developers. He also met several times a week with chief executives, government officials, university presidents, scientists, venture capitalists, fund managers, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and others eager to tap his experience and expertise.

3) I recently did an hour-long podcast episode with my friend Bruce Huberman and Paul Assaiante, the "winningest coach in college sports history" (his men's squash team at Trinity College won 252 consecutive matches, including 13 national championships, from 1998 to 2012): Whitney Tilson: From Wall Street to Experiencing the World. Here's a summary:

In this episode of Wide Open, our guest Whitney Tilson shares insights into his career in finance, commitment to philanthropy, and his love for travel! He speaks on the influence of his upbringing, on mentors in the finance field, like Warren Buffett, and the importance of achieving a work-life balance, especially in a high paced and stressful career.

Tilson delves into his experiences in the hedge fund industry, the pressure of managing other people's money, and the creation of his successful investment newsletter. He shares his process on creating and self-publishing his book The Art of Playing Defense, which explores how to create resilience and avoid life calamities. Both hosts reflect on the challenges of parenting in a digital age and the impact of social media on the younger generation. Tilson's perspective from his wide range of experiences gives some valuable nuggets of wisdom for those seeking to not only understand the world of finance and investment a bit better, but also on how to approach some of life's bigger questions.

4) Here's further evidence that inflation looks fully contained:

5) There has been a lot of talk recently about a crash in the housing market – for example, see this post on X:

But I'm not convinced...

And neither is one of my smartest friends – a former hedge-fund manager who now posts on X anonymously under the handle BeenThereDoneThat Capital. He posted this thread in response, which begins:

6) I'm passing along an important message from my cousin Rachel:

Six years ago at the age of 41 I was diagnosed with breast cancer. I had ZERO risk factors and NO family history. I was in the best shape of my life and had starting training for a race. At 40 I had a mammogram and everything was great.

41 came around and I thought that I could put off another mammogram, so I did for months. I drove by the mammogram place every day.

One day I decided to just make an appointment. They got me in right away – it only took 10 minutes. The next day I got a call that I needed to come back in...

I had a tumor the size of a nickel. It was very aggressive and fast growing. If I had put off my mammogram even a month more, things would have been much worse.

Some health insurance companies are saying you don't need to start mammograms until 50, unless there is a family history or risk factors, but I had none!!!

Mammograms are a bit uncomfortable but trust me, they are nothing compared to cancer treatments. You can literally save your life by spending a couple minutes being uncomfortable. If you don't do it for you, do it for your family and loved ones!!

GET A MAMMOGRAM!

Best regards,

Whitney

P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.