Enjoy the Good Times While They're Here

There's a lot to like about being human. We're smart, adaptive, and creative... and we can accomplish incredible things when we work together.

Still, we're far from perfect. And as I've gotten older, I've continually learned and relearned a sad truth about the human condition...

We don't appreciate what we have until it's gone.

It could be a relationship, a job, or anything else that makes life enjoyable. The problem is, we assume those good things will last forever. We take them for granted... and seldom fully appreciate them in the moment.

The same is true for markets. The easy times never feel that easy... But once tough times come, we long for what we had before.

Right now, we're living through the good times. Stocks recently finished their best quarter since 2020. And while these good times won't last forever, history tells us we can expect a strong finish to 2026.

Why We Can Expect a Strong Second Half of 2026

We're in an incredible bull market... one of the best of our lifetimes. The S&P 500 Index has doubled over the past three and a half years. We haven't seen a stretch like that since the dot-com boom of the late 1990s.

Importantly, the rally has only heated up in recent months. The S&P 500 jumped 15% in the second quarter. Take a look...

This was the index's best quarterly return since 2020. Looking further back, this kind of gain is a rare feat... We've only seen 11 other quarterly returns of this magnitude since 1950.

You can probably guess that those were good times to buy. Strong momentum consistently leads to higher prices. That's true in this case as well. Here's what has happened after similar setups...

Buying after a big rally might not feel great... But it sure is a wise investing strategy.

Since 1950, buying after a strong quarter has led to gains of 8.3% in three months, 14.1% in six months, and 11.6% over a year.

Interestingly, the typical one-year return is less than the six-month return. So the momentum factor does weaken over time. But stocks were still higher a year later in 82% of cases.

Either way, we should expect at least a strong second half of the year. The S&P 500 already finished the first half of 2026 with a double-digit gain. And if this setup leads to the typical 14.1% six-month return, we'll easily see a 20%-plus return at the end of 2026.

That would mean stocks returned 20%-plus in three of the four years since 2022. (The only exception being last year, which fell just shy of that return, at 17%.) That's a fantastic string of winning years.

Of course, right now, folks are worried about what could go wrong. They don't appreciate how good we've had it. And they won't... until the bad times show up again.

The good news is, we're not there yet. Stocks can keep rising in the months ahead. So stay invested. And don't forget to appreciate the good times while they're here.

Good investing,

Brett Eversole