Use the 'Information Gap' to Find Trends Before Wall Street

Last month, I stood in front of a room of more than a thousand investors in Las Vegas.

These were smart, successful people... folks who take the markets seriously.

I asked a simple question: "How many of you have used Tesla's Full Self-Driving?"

Very few hands went up.

That surprised me – because I've been using it for nearly five years.

In fact, a week earlier, I'd picked up a friend from the airport and asked him to take the driver's seat while Full Self-Driving handled the rest. During our 30-mile trip, his hands barely touched the wheel.

What he said when we arrived stuck with me: "I would argue I still haven't driven a Tesla."

That gap – between what I experience daily and what a room full of sophisticated investors hasn't touched – is information.

And here's the thing... You can use that gap to your advantage. It reveals the investing trends you need to pay attention to today.

Human Behavior Leaves Tracks

Last week, I wrote about a simple idea: Truth reveals itself in behavior before it shows up in reports.

That behavior leaves traces out in the world. I call these observable surfaces – places where real people reveal what they want, need, believe, or fear before Wall Street models it.

Sometimes the signal is loud – like in 2007, when I was first in line for the iPhone with a hundred people lined up behind me. The crowd had already voted. Demand was visible, even if Wall Street hadn't adjusted yet.

Other times, the signal is quiet... An empty room. A technology debated but not experienced. A product that everyone has an opinion on, but few people actually use.

Loud signals tell you one thing. Quiet signals tell another.

Both are data... if you know where to look.

Investing legend Peter Lynch famously said to invest in what you know. He found ideas by paying attention to what his wife bought at the mall and what his kids obsessed over.

The lesson wasn't homespun wisdom. It was analytical. Lynch understood that human behavior is a leading indicator.

Investor and author Chris Camillo took this idea further decades later. He called this idea social arbitrage – shifts you can spot in the culture before Wall Street notices. He wasn't reading filings. He was watching people.

Sentiment Signals You Can Use to Invest

We're seeing this on a much larger scale all the time, thanks to technology. Human behavior leaves digital footprints everywhere – from search queries and downloads... to bets and reviews.

Each is an observable surface. And it's a window into sentiment. Here are a few ways to get started...

1. Searches Reveal the Questions People Are Asking

Google Trends is one of the most underused tools to reveal these observable surfaces.

Searches don't show purchases. But they do show intent.

And intent precedes revenue.

When searches spike for phrases like "Ozempic side effects," "home solar tax credit," or "best pickleball paddle"... you're seeing millions of people independently asking the same questions.

That's coordinated curiosity.

By the time a company reports "strong demand," the signal has already passed through search.

2. App Downloads Reveal Changes in Behavior

App rankings show behavior crossing from curiosity into action.

When an app moves from No. 50 to No. 5, that's thousands of people changing what they do, at the same time.

Back in 2016, social media app Snapchat reached No. 1 on Apple's App Store for the first time. A few months later, it released camera glasses through vending machines in Los Angeles. I drove there to try to buy a pair.

They were sold out.

That scarcity wasn't hype. It was information about a trend Snapchat's app ranking had already hinted was coming. People wanted the company's product badly enough to hunt for it.

3. Prediction Markets Reveal What People Believe

Here's an observable surface most investors still ignore: prediction markets.

Platforms like Polymarket let people bet real money on outcomes in world events – elections, policy decisions, regulatory approvals, and product launches.

Unlike pundits or polls, the bettors in prediction markets have skin in the game.

People don't bet real money on what sounds reasonable. They bet on what they believe.

Historically, these markets have often been more accurate than expert consensus – especially when they diverge sharply from conventional wisdom.

When people risk capital, they tend to tell the truth.

Why Some Signals Look Different

One distinction matters... the difference between consumers and businesses.

Consumer signals move fast, but can be noisy. Meanwhile, enterprise signals move slowly – but they tend to stick.

A surge in consumer adoption might fade. Enterprise adoption usually doesn't.

When companies commit to budget, training, and workflow changes, they're placing long-term bets.

The most powerful moments occur when multiple observable surfaces converge... when consumers pull something forward and enterprises quietly lock it in.

Those moments rarely show up first in stock prices.

Paying Attention Is the Individual Investor's Edge

Institutions don't lack intelligence.

They lack flexibility.

By the time institutional capital acts on what search trends, app rankings, and prediction markets are already showing, the signal is often stale.

As an individual investor, you don't have that constraint.

You can check search intent in seconds... see where real money is betting on outcomes right now... and watch behavior change this week – not next quarter.

Sometimes the crowd tells you something by lining up outside an Apple Store.

Sometimes it tells you something by not raising a hand in a room full of investors.

Either way, the truth shows up first on observable surfaces.

The signal is already there... The only question is whether you're paying attention.

Good investing,

Josh Baylin