I'm Not Surprised by the Bear Market in Crypto
It's strange... I haven't heard from the cryptocurrency bulls in a while.
A year and a half ago, crypto was all anyone could talk about. I was even laughed at for not owning any bitcoin and being so openly against owning it.
But the bulls have been silenced since then.
Bitcoin is down 28% from mid-December 2024. Ethereum is down about 40%. Many smaller cryptos have fallen much more... Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index is up 19% over that time frame.
I'm not surprised.
In fact, I published a special report on December 16, 2024 telling my Retirement Millionaire subscribers to avoid bitcoin.
Again, this was a contrarian stance at the time. Bitcoin was ripping higher off its 2022 lows. But I decided to publish a warning for my readers because my "Spidey sense" was tingling.
Today, I'm going to share what I wrote back in December 2024. I'm not doing this to gloat or to pat my own back... I simply want to remind you that you shouldn't buy an asset when everyone thinks it's going to the moon.
I talk about this all the time... To avoid being caught in the middle of big sell-offs, you need to have a contrarian mindset. You need to be careful when the "herd" goes all-in.
Here's what I wrote back in 2024...
I (Doc) personally don't own any bitcoin. I know the underlying technology of blockchain is innovative and practical. But with nothing tangible backing bitcoin, it's near impossible to determine an underlying value.
We're dealing with the market and its perception, its risk tolerance, and its expectations of profit. It's about all the people who participate in the market and what they believe will happen.
Bitcoin is not inherently "productive." It doesn't produce earnings or cash flow. It doesn't pay dividends or interest. That's why you can't really value it like a traditional stock or bond.
If you do invest in cryptos, you also have to deal with the possibility of fraud and hacks. This industry doesn't have the regulatory guardrails you might take for granted in the stock market.
Some people call bitcoin a "digital gold" that will hold its value when everyone panics. That's a pattern we've seen with precious metals. But bitcoin doesn't behave like that.
Rather, bitcoin rises when investors like risky assets like tech stocks. And it falls when they don't.
The chart below shows the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index and bitcoin since the end of 2019...
You can't call bitcoin digital gold. It behaves more like a tech stock. So don't fool yourself into thinking you are buying some sort of protection when you are just speculating.
Folks who bought bitcoin during the frenzy in late 2021 saw their investment fall a staggering 74% by April 2022. Again, does this sound like a store of value?
Now, I must admit, I've written before about how it's OK to own some bitcoin. But only as a small fraction of your investment portfolio... And only with play money – money you can afford to lose.
Today, I'm nervous for folks who own bitcoin...
I'm starting to see the same reckless speculation that we saw at other previous peaks. The younger generations are going all-in again, blowing up popular message boards. Family and friends are starting to talk to me more about bitcoin and whether they should buy or not. And that makes sense because the price of bitcoin has been on a tear recently. It's currently around all-time highs.
But buying when the "herd" is moving all-in usually spells disaster in the short term. It would not surprise me if we saw another major move down for bitcoin.
My advice today is to not get sucked into the hype around bitcoin. This is an extremely volatile asset, and it's only a matter of time before we see another major move lower. Even if it goes up over the long term, this isn't the time to buy in.
In that 2024 special report, I also named two stocks and one exchange-traded fund that you should own instead of bitcoin. These are investments that give folks exposure to hard assets – something real and of practical use.
On average, these three investments are up 37% since December 2024, crushing both bitcoin and the S&P 500.
All three of these hard-asset plays are still Strong Buys in my Retirement Millionaire portfolio.
If you're interested in a subscription to Retirement Millionaire, you can click here to learn more.
What We're Reading...
- For Retirement Millionaire subscribers only... "Don't Buy This, Buy That."
- Something different: Which NBA playoff teams should already be panicking?
Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,
Dr. David Eifrig and the Health & Wealth Bulletin Research Team
April 22, 2026