A Hard Winter Ahead
A 2008-style warning from the labor market... Real-world signs of a slowdown spreading... Your small-business stories... A calmer market... An opportunity for year-end gains...
Bah, humbug...
It's only the third time this has happened since 2008... The U.S. employers announced more than 70,000 job cuts in the month of November.
That's the headline from today's layoffs and hiring plans report from the staffing and consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
While layoff plans were actually down by about 50% from October, U.S. businesses announced 71,321 job cuts. That's up 24% year over year. And this November is the eighth month in 2025 that saw year-over-year increases in planned job cuts.
The significance of cuts in November (versus another month) is practical and emotional. That's according to Andy Challenger, the chief revenue officer of the firm that puts out this research each month.
It used to be common for companies to lay off workers near the end of the fiscal year, Challenger said. But that hasn't been the case lately. As he explained...
It became unpopular after the Great Recession especially, and best practice dictated layoff plans would occur at times other than the holidays.
But many companies – facing higher costs and real budgets – are finding holiday-season layoffs unavoidable this year. Again, until last month, America saw more than 70,000 November layoff announcements just twice in the past 17 years... in 2008 and 2022.
Ebenezer Scrooge would have surely approved.
Overall, through November, U.S. employers have announced 1.17 million job cuts. That's an increase of 54% versus the first 11 months of last year, and it's the highest number since the 2.22 million pandemic-era layoffs in 2020.
Your takes...
In yesterday's edition, we shared another jobs report showing small businesses cutting the most jobs last month. And we put out a call to small-business owners in our audience for comments on what you're seeing out in the real world.
Here's one note from C.C., the longtime owner of a window-cleaning business...
What I'm seeing in my small (under 500K) service business is some customers are cutting back; others are getting later to pay. Things are not crashing and burning, but some are holding back on expenses not necessary to keep the doors open.
Window cleaning isn't a needed service if you have trouble paying the heating bill. I view my work as the "canary in the coal mine" as it's one of the first things that gets cut when people need to tighten their belts.
Been in business for over 40 years so always notice the pattern...
This is the general sense I get from what I'm hearing and reading about and seeing in the economy today. At the least, a lot of people are pulling back on discretionary spending and prioritizing "needs" over "wants"... And then there's worse...
Here's subscriber S.R., who wrote to us last night...
As I read your question, my husband is on a Zoom call with a small-town medical clinic which he serves on an advisory board for. They are trying to determine what clinics to close and which ones they can afford to keep open as they primarily serve impoverished communities throughout our state. Funding cuts, Medicaid cuts and immigration policies have impacted their clinics and their staffing, and next year is anticipated to be even worse.
That said, our small business (a pharmacy) of four employees, in a three-stoplight, lower income town, continues to face difficult times. I don't know if we will make it through the year. In the local retirement community, many of the seasonal Canadian tourists have left for good and many local people will be dropping their health insurance and are discussing stopping medications or breaking them in half.
In our town, immigrants are a vital part of our community and our economy. Many of our workforce are choosing to leave even if they have valid work permits. Combine that with lack of season travelers and ever-increasing costs, the picture isn't pretty for sure.
Thanks for the note, S.R. Sounds like a tough situation. Best of luck to you and those in your town...
We'll keep sharing observations as we receive them in our mailbag at the bottom of our daily letter. Today's edition includes an additional take from "north of the border." Send your notes to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
No news is good news...
As trading days have gone this year, today was relatively uneventful. Most of the major U.S. indexes were little changed, apart from the small-cap Russell 2000, which was up almost 1%.
On a related note, Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond told his subscribers to close out a bullish trade on small caps for a gain of close to 6% in two days.
From a technical view, Greg is eyeing whether stocks will take another "wave" down soon, or possibly just keep grinding higher. "This is the big question on my mind for the last few weeks of 2025 heading into 2026," Greg also wrote today.
In the meantime, he thought it wise to take profits in small caps.
Overall, the market has calmed in the past few weeks...
Since a combination of AI-bubble fears, massive liquidations in leveraged cryptocurrency trades, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts have dominated the headlines, volatility has cooled lately.
The CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") has dipped to around 16, an average level. High-yield credit spreads have come back down, too, since November 21. AI fervor hasn't really changed. Bitcoin is down off its highs, though it has settled above $90,000. And the market once again expects the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting on Wednesday.
Tomorrow, we'll see the latest personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") report. Its findings could reignite some questions about the central bank's likely choice to lower rates.
Still, we're not expecting anything to change. We've seen too much weak labor-market data in recent weeks... And we've heard too many "dovish" (favorable to lower rates) comments from Fed officials – and no argument from Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he had the opportunity during a public event earlier this week.
Only a massive jump in reported inflation would override these factors.
We'll close today with another opportunity worth thinking about...
Our friend Rob Spivey from our corporate affiliate Altimetry joined Dan Ferris on this week's Stansberry Investor Hour. Among other things, they discussed an opportunity in one corner of the market that has the folks at Altimetry excited today...
As Rob shared, changes in government regulatory policy will lead to a surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in certain areas. These companies' stock prices could spike by more than 100% in a day. As Rob told Dan, if you're looking to put new money to work...
Do not sleep on the opportunity that is out there right now... We're about to see a surge of M&A, and there are going to be three big beneficiaries of that that are going to be the right places for you to put your portfolio... [Identify] great strategic acquirers, [identify] the investment banks that are going to participate in being able to make fees from it... and try to identify which are the obvious acquisition targets.
Rob explained that he has found the key to identifying potential takeovers... It involves the unique forensic accounting that the folks at Altimetry use to uncover the right stocks. And he expects a flurry of M&A in the final weeks of 2025.
Click here or below to check out the full podcast on our YouTube page... or listen on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts...
And to hear even more detail on this story and opportunity, you can sign up for a free new event that Rob and Altimetry founder Joel Litman are hosting on Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern time.
They say one stock in particular could see its shares double in one day. And to help investors prepare for this opportunity, they've also released a short list of other tiny companies with the same potential.
Joel and Rob have spotted 22 similar opportunities in the past five years, which soared as high as 120% in a single day. Click here for more information and register now.
New 52-week highs (as of 12/3/25): Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML (ASML), Atour Lifestyle (ATAT), Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE), Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund (EMD), EnerSys (ENS), EQT (EQT), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), Mueller Industries (MLI), VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund (MOAT), Nucor (NUE), Novartis (NVS), Seabridge Gold (SA), SandRidge Energy (SD), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), Valaris (VAL), and Vale (VALE).
In today's mailbag, as mentioned, we have a view from Canada... Do you have a comment or question? As always, send your notes to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I know the target audience of the question is for Americans, but I thought I would provide you a Canadian perspective. You know, the people who used to be your largest trading partner but [are] now your 'enemy' according to POTUS.
"Business activity has slowed significantly and jobs for young people are practically nonexistent. My son's friend, recently out of University with an engineering degree was overjoyed that my son was able to get him in at his work sanding kitchen cabinets as he was unable to get anything else. My son is going into the trades as a University education is no longer a good investment.
"Food is now very expensive here in Canada. I see weekly price increases. What I used to spend for a week maybe three years ago has at least doubled if not more and I saw a report recently that Canadians can expect to pay at least $1,000 more to feed a family of four in 2026.
"The housing market, once a strong economic driver in Canada, has slowed significantly as buyers are waiting on the sidelines for stability, and fear of job loss.
"Algoma Steel up in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, issued layoff notices to 1,000 people on December 1. Algoma is pretty much the only game in town in Sault St. Marie. Tariffs were cited as partially responsible.
"Oh, and by the way, many Canadians who used to plan vacations and trips to the USA will no longer do so for fear of overzealous border guards and basically an anti-American sentiment..." – Subscriber Jeff S.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
December 4, 2025