How Long-Term Investors Should Handle the Headlines
Trump: Iran had better 'get serious'... How long-term investors should handle the headlines... Mortgage rates are back on the rise... More private-credit funds halt redemptions... What to avoid in the 'Year of the Bear'...
The week's 'good news' just reversed...
In a post on Truth Social today, President Donald Trump said Iran needs to "get serious soon, before it is too late." He also warned that the future "won't be pretty" if Iran doesn't make a deal.
All of this comes after the five-day "pause" on energy assets that Trump announced before markets opened on Monday. That was the good news that powered a 1.3% rebound in the S&P 500 Index through yesterday's close.
We haven't heard anything further on extending that deadline.
Trump said Iran let 10 ships through the Strait of Hormuz as a "present" to the U.S. But the uncertainty over what may come after the short "ceasefire" expires was too much to outweigh the unknown.
Stocks headed lower again today, with all three major indexes down more than 1% – and the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way with a 2.3% loss. On the other side of the Iran war trade, West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped back above $94 per barrel.
In a cabinet meeting today, Trump shrugged off the fears. Stocks are approaching the six-month low they set last week, and oil is up 60% this year. Trump said the market moves weren't as bad as he expected.
As we've noted a couple times this week, the S&P 500 remains below its 200-day moving average and is in a short-term downtrend. So the short-term stock market losses may not be finished yet – and may meet Trump's lower expectations.
Long-term investors should keep ignoring the noise...
Headlines from the conflict in Iran are changing multiple times a day. And that's a big reason for the volatility we've seen in stocks recently. But it doesn't mean you should sell your stocks and wait for clearer waters.
As our colleague and Stansberry's Investment Advisory editor Whitney Tilson wrote in his free daily e-letter yesterday, he has no reaction to the latest Iran headlines. The recent pullback – with the S&P 500 about 7% off its all-time highs – is nothing new.
From Whitney...
This is the 32nd time the market has experienced a 5% or greater correction since the generational bottom in March 2009 during the global financial crisis. And five of these declines were more than 20%.
And even in the past few years, stock market corrections have been short-lived. More from Whitney...
Do you remember the 10.3% drop in 2023? The S&P 500 was up 26.3% for the year.
The 8.5% decline in 2024? The S&P 500 was up 25% for the year.
The 18.9% crash in April 2025? The S&P 500 was up 17.9% for the year.
Elsewhere, mortgage rates have the housing market back on ice...
Last month, we wrote that mortgage rates had dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022. As our colleague and True Wealth editor Brett Eversole has said, that's the level we need to see to thaw the housing market.
But we warned that mortgage rates would have to fall even further to really unlock the housing market. From that February 25 Digest...
Still, more than two-thirds of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5%, and more than half have a mortgage rate below 4%. So mortgage rates will have to continue heading lower to unlock more prospective buyers.
Since hitting that low, mortgage rates have jumped higher in a straight line...
At about 6.5%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now at a six-month high. And costlier mortgages have pushed more buyers out of the market.
That's what we saw in the weekly mortgage applications report from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The Purchases Index, which measures mortgage applications for folks looking to buy a home, fell about 5% from last week to this week.
As long as mortgage rates are above 6%, we're going to see housing activity take a breather. And that could take away any of the momentum that we mentioned last month.
Folks still want their money out of private-credit funds...
Regular Digest readers know this is another trend we've been following.
Private credit means direct loans to businesses. And some lenders have let investors own a piece of this debt in private-credit funds.
The trend took off – for a while. Lately, sentiment has reversed.
In the past six months, redemption requests to private-credit funds have tripled. This week alone, private-equity firms Ares and Apollo Global have limited redemptions from some of their private-credit funds. In both cases, investors tried to withdraw 11% of the shares outstanding, and the companies limited the redemptions to 5%.
That means for each investor who requested a redemption, they'll get less than half of the money they asked for.
By limiting redemptions, private-equity and private-credit firms are preventing a "run" on their funds where everyone asks for their money all at once. That would lead to a "fire sale" of the assets – sending prices plummeting.
But the moves won't do much to attract new investors to these private-credit funds.
Shareholders in private-credit companies are fleeing, too...
We can see that in the shares of private-equity companies. There are no "redemption limits" on the companies' stocks, so we can get an idea of just how bearish folks are on private equity...
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is down 40% this year, Apollo Global (APO) is down nearly 25%, and Ares Management (ARES) is down nearly 35%.
There will likely be some "babies thrown out with the bath water" in the private-equity space. Brett recommended one last week in True Wealth (subscribers and Alliance members can see that issue here). And as we wrote in the March 10 Digest, at least one hedge-fund owner has begun to see a buying opportunity in private-credit funds.
But in general, we wouldn't recommend trying to time the bottom in these stocks. Instead, we'll leave you with Whitney's conclusion from yesterday's e-letter...
If you hold high-quality stocks, well-managed funds, and/or low-fee index funds, sit tight and ignore the headlines.
If you have some extra cash, you can look to take advantage of the mini sell-off by doing some buying.
Most importantly, don't get sucked into whatever stocks or sectors Wall Street is promoting.
That's good advice for any market environment – not just today's with Iran headlines and private-credit worries.
In case you missed it...
Last night, Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin went live with his brand-new presentation. For months, Marc has been calling 2026 the "Year of the Bear."
And now, Marc told viewers exactly when the "bear market window" would open. As Marc said last night...
On March 31, the U.S. stock market enters its very own "hurricane season."
A window of time where – based on 75 years of market history – conditions are unusually favorable for bear markets.
He also told viewers how they can position themselves in the next few days to protect their wealth. Plus, he named Chaikin Analytics' No. 1 stock and ETF to avoid in the Year of the Bear.
(Here's a hint... They're not the sorts of investments that Whitney says you can buy and hold.)
If you missed last night's event, we urge you to view the replay right here.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/25/26): Antero Resources (AR), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BWX Technologies (BWXT), Chord Energy (CHRD), Ciena (CIEN), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Diversified Energy (DEC), EOG Resources (EOG), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), EQT (EQT), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), GE Vernova (GEV), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Matador Resources (MTDR), New York Times (NYT), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), and Valaris (VAL).
In today's mailbag, more feedback on Stansberry Research analyst Josh Baylin's new research advisory, Mosaic Trader, exclusively available right now for Stansberry Alliance members... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I had been wondering what happened to Josh, as I enjoyed reading his occasional contributions to DailyWealth... I'm very happy to see that he now has his own platform..." – Subscriber Sherwin R.
All the best,
Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
March 26, 2026