The Only Rule That Matters Right Now

What to do with mixed market signals... Control what you can control... Why we're not calling a bottom... One market gauge says 'don't buy yet'... Booking a 107% gain in four months... Good reasons to sell...

The wait is on...

Yesterday morning, President Donald Trump offered Iran (and the market) a public olive branch of sorts, with the idea of negotiating a "resolution" of the war.

Today, we saw skepticism about that thought. Oil prices were higher (by about 4%), bond yields rose (again), and the energy sector of the S&P 500 was up by about 2% (again).

Meanwhile, the major U.S. indexes were mixed after rising yesterday.

Notably, the benchmark S&P 500 Index lost 0.4% and remained below its 200-day moving average (200-DMA), a simple technical measure of a long-term trend, for a fourth straight trading day. That's not something bulls want to see.

That's just one signal, though. There are plenty of conflicting indicators about the state of the market right now.

Jeffrey Hirsch, the publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac and a former Stansberry Investor Hour guest, noted this fascinating trend yesterday. He suggested that market behavior so far this year is "typical" of what we've seen in Trump's five years as president...

Now, we wouldn't make any investment decisions based on one chart with a small sample size like this, but it does lead us to some questions we were already thinking about...

Is the "worst" of the war in Iran behind us? Will it be like what happened with the tariff threats last spring, or the trade war with China during Trump's first term?

If the worst is behind us, is the roughly 6% war-driven drawdown we've seen in the S&P 500 closer to the end than the beginning?

We're hesitant to behave like a 'bottom' is in quite yet...

Last week, we wrote about one indicator we like to use to track the market's health – the number of stocks trading above their individual 200-DMAs.

Today, about 46% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their long-term trends. So market health, or "breadth," isn't terrible. But it means that if more surprises come in the war or inflation, there's more room for downside ahead.

At major market bottoms, this number typically gets near or below 15%. As longtime readers know, major bottoms are when great long-term buying opportunities often present themselves. But we're not there right now.

Our colleague Chris Igou shared another indicator that suggests patience is the right approach in DailyWealth Trader today.

As Chris wrote, individual investor sentiment has reached "'Liberation Day'-level fear," which is healthy and a positive long-term signal, but not a "'fat pitch' opportunity to double down on stocks today."

You see, Chris showed three-month, six-month, and one-year forward returns from times of fear similar to today. If you had bought during those times, you would have underperformed the S&P 500, on average, during those holding periods.

The next catalysts to watch...

As we said, yesterday, Trump purported that the U.S. is pursuing negotiations to end the Iran war this week. But it's unclear with whom White House officials are talking.

Trump said they're "dealing with the man who, I believe, is the most respected, and the leader." But it's unclear if this person wields enough power because Trump didn't name him – for fear of the man being killed by the Iranian military, presumably.

So what, exactly, does that mean for the war, the still choked-off Strait of Hormuz, and the upended global oil supply? According to Trump yesterday...

We're doing a five-day period [with negotiations]. We'll see how that goes. And if it goes well, we're going to end up with settling this. Otherwise, we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out.

Meanwhile, at last check, thousands of Marines are still en route to the Persian Gulf, coincidentally projected to get there by the end of this week. Reports today have 3,000 soldiers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division set to join them.

Some astute observers are saying this negotiation talk could all be a "diversion" as U.S. troops prepare to enter Iran and find whatever enriched uranium is being hidden by Iran's present leadership. I (Corey McLaughlin) think there's probably something to this thesis.

What you can control...

What happens next in the Middle East remains unpredictable, as does the market in general. In the meantime, here's one idea you can consider: "Control what you can control."

I first heard this line from a sports psychologist about 20 years ago. The idea applies to playing sports at a high level, investing, and just about anything else.

Yes, a lot of things are out of our control – like wars, inflation, or whether the president wakes up and posts market-moving news on social media – but we can put ourselves in good (or bad) positions to succeed (or fail), and live with it.

For example, if you're concerned about more downside ahead in the stock market, you can take profits on a position or two – if there's a good reason, like if the thesis behind the original investment is no longer valid.

That's what Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig did in Retirement Millionaire earlier this month. Subscribers who followed his advice booked a 107% winner in just four months on aluminum company Century Aluminum (CENX).

Four months ago, Doc and his team saw an opportunity...

As Doc wrote in his free Health & Wealth Bulletin last week, his team was looking for a way to "profit from the reshoring boom that's bringing manufacturing capability back to America. One clear way to do this was through aluminum... "

You see, while the U.S. produces very little aluminum, it's crucial to the automotive and electronics industries, and to national defense production. So turning the U.S. back into a manufacturing power will require a lot of aluminum.

Plus, the White House provided the U.S. aluminum industry with a big edge over foreign competitors because domestic production was shielded from tariffs.

Considering all of this, Doc and his team made a bet on higher aluminum prices in the months and years to come via America's largest aluminum producer.

They didn't have to wait years, though...

Aluminum prices in the U.S. recently reached multiyear highs, and Century's stock doubled. As Doc wrote in Health & Wealth Bulletin last week...

That left me and my team with a dilemma. Should we be safe and sell the shares... or take a risk and keep riding the momentum higher?

Here's what they decided, from this month's issue of Retirement Millionaire...

Now, some of America's tariffs are in question amid court battles and ever-changing policy. Trump has specifically mentioned his team may roll back aluminum tariffs.

We got the move we were looking for in Century – just much faster than we thought.

Now, as you can see in the chart below, Century can really take off when it has momentum, like it did in 2007 and 2008. But it can also come crashing down in an instant.

Maybe Century has more upside. We could be leaving some profits on the table today... But more important, we want to avoid the crash and protect the gains we already have.

Good reasons to sell...

As Doc also noted, a bunch of Century insiders cashed out of their shares within the past month, which provided another signal...

CEO Jesse Gary sold approximately $7 million worth of shares in late January. Gunnar Gudlaugsson, the head of global operations, sold another $2.3 million on February 25. Glencore (GLNCY), the company's largest backer, just offloaded over 6.3 million shares in a massive block trade on March 4.

As Doc continued in Health & Wealth Bulletin...

To recap, we decided to sell because the aluminum tariffs are now in question. And if they're removed or rolled back, that would hurt Century. We also saw insiders at the company selling their shares on the move higher, signaling that the rally might be topping out.

But more importantly, look at that chart [of Century Aluminum] above. Any stock that shoots up that fast has the potential to come crashing down in no time at all. Even with a tight stop loss, a sell-off could've wiped out most of our gains before we had time to react.

So while we may have left some profits on the table, that's a trade-off we were willing to make. Protecting our triple-digit gain and our peace of mind took priority.

If we look back in a year and see we didn't nail the peak, that's OK. No investor has a crystal ball and can time the market perfectly.

All you can do is make the best decisions for your portfolio in the moment using the information you have. And if that means taking profits, so be it.

Said another way, control what you can control. Sometimes, that can mean taking profits. Other times, in the same kind of environment, it might mean buying when everyone else is "fearful." Tomorrow, we'll share more details on that.

One last thing...

Time is running out to register for Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin's new free presentation. It debuts at 8 p.m. Eastern tomorrow... and you don't want to miss it.

Many of you are likely familiar with Marc. He's a 50-plus-year Wall Street veteran who has worked with some of the biggest investors of all time. The indicators he has invented are used all over Wall Street.

In recent years, he has also predicted the 2020 crash... the 2022 bear market... and the 2023 "run on the banks." Now he's saying we're fast approaching a "bear market window" that could usher in the biggest potential losses in years.

Tomorrow night, Marc is going to share the details on what he sees coming... and the No. 1 move that folks should make to not only protect their wealth but also potentially lock in double-digit gains over the next 90 days.

In the first five minutes of tomorrow night's briefing, he'll tell you the exact date you should move your money to stay ahead of what's coming.

Plus, Marc will explain what he believes the market's recent sell-offs really mean... and give you two free recommendations you can act on immediately.

Click here to sign up now and make sure you don't miss anything.

New 52-week highs (as of 3/23/26): Chevron (CVX), EOG Resources (EOG), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), EQT (EQT), GE Vernova (GEV), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Matador Resources (MTDR), New York Times (NYT), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), Tenaris (TS), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).

In today's mailbag, more feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday essay... and thoughts on yesterday's Digest, which covered the latest in the war in Iran... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Thanks, Dan, for an excellent analysis. [Trump and] the Secretary of War/Defense will say that the war will end in a matter of days or weeks at the most. I really, really hope they are correct, but I'm not holding my breath. Very much looking forward to next week's recommendation." – Subscriber Sherwin R.

"As you point out, oil production around Hormuz has been damaged. Also, Qatar's LNG (a major supplier) has been taken out for some years and some 20% of global LNG is trapped in Hormuz.

"We are already seeing this impact fertilizer production. The lack of LNG will also hit Taiwan badly which needs it for electricity production which will impact its semiconductor industry. It also hits the supply of sour crude which is needed for sulphur production and sulphuric acid (essential to metals mining).

"I could go on but you get the picture – the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order impacts are huge." – Subscriber S.J.I.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
March 24, 2026