I'm Not Gonna Miss Out This Time
Taking my own advice... The president has just begun... Government-picked winners... Fishing in a stocked pond... Even more government-approved S&P 500 buyers... What to do when the facts change...
I (Dan Ferris) need to start taking my own advice...
When the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to combat inflation in 2022, the author/investor Vitaliy Katsenelson told me...
Whatever happened to you over the last 20 years, just invert it.
Vitaliy was watching interest rates going up and stocks going down and realized that the trend of the previous couple of decades was over. I agreed and covered his remark in a Digest essay titled "The End of the World as We've Known It."
His extrapolation gnawed at me for weeks. Finally, in my October 15, 2022 Digest, I published the following chart of all the sorts of financial and economic inversions I thought we might see:
Digest readers and The Ferris Report subscribers have seen this chart several times. And I wasn't listening to myself.
Today, I'm thinking about the last item on my list and wondering why I didn't remember it once President Donald Trump took office – elected in a landslide to "make America great again."
This is the guy who made his fortune building massive real estate projects with huge sums of borrowed money (occasionally using the bankruptcy code) and putting his name on everything from bottled water to board games, steaks, wine... you name it... Of course he'd want to invest taxpayer money into the stock market.
I should have known, too, that his primary targets would include companies like chipmaker Intel (INTC), rare earth miners MP Materials (MP) and Lithium Americas (LAC), and other firms doing critical manufacturing and mining on American shores. Duh!
And within the past two years, I even heard a pitch for Intel – whose stock has been down as much as 73% since its January 2020 all-time high – based partly on the idea of reshoring chip manufacturing for national-security purposes.
I did nothing.
And now the stock has recently traded as much as 149% above its April 8 tariff-tantrum low. Of course, most of that gain arrived after the Trump administration announced taking a 9.9% stake in the chipmaker in August.
The stock is up more than 70% since that date, and it's up more than 30% since Nvidia announced its own $5 billion investment in Intel on September 18.
The point is, I really have no excuse for not pouncing on the stock on multiple occasions – each of which would have produced an excellent gain.
It was my own idea: "ideologically driven capital allocation and economic policy" as the inversion of economically driven policy. And it was staring me right in the face.
This is what the late, great Charlie Munger used to refer to as thumb sucking. That's when you come up with a great investment thesis, then sit and watch the stock trade up without taking action.
Fortunately, it looks like Trump has only just begun...
On the Stansberry Investment Hour podcast, Digest editor Corey McLaughlin and I recently spoke with Luke Lango. Luke is a tech guru at our corporate affiliate InvestorPlace. He told us about Trump's latest investment initiative, called the Genesis Mission.
The official White House announcement called the project...
A new national effort to use artificial intelligence (AI) to transform how scientific research is conducted and accelerate the speed of scientific discovery.
Even better for us investors, the White House doesn't leave us guessing about which industries Genesis will target:
Priority areas of focus include the greatest scientific challenges of our time that can dramatically improve our Nation's national, economic, and health security, including biotechnology, critical materials, nuclear fission and fusion energy, space exploration, quantum information science, and semiconductors and microelectronics.
Of course Trump wants America to have "the very best" of every important new technology. AI is a thing now? OK then, America must have the best AI. Rare earths? We must mine them. Robotics? We need the best robots.
That's his vision, and he has proved that he intends to use taxpayer dollars to bring it to fruition.
I'm not saying he's made it effortless for investors to exploit his plans. There are probably hundreds, if not thousands, of potential targets among those industries. It will take a substantial amount of work to find the best bets among them.
But he has delivered you two important pieces on a silver platter:
- The major theme: "national, economic, and health security"
- The list of specific industries the administration wants to help
It's like the government is begging to make you rich by telling you which stocks it will send higher.
I'm not saying this is a good idea...
As my longtime readers know, nobody hates government interference in the economy more than I do. Our government causes far more problems than it solves. And I'd rather it shrink by at least 50%... not continue to grow and wield greater power.
But I don't fantasize about the world I live in. And as Stansberry Director of Research Matt Weinschenck recently pointed out:
The U.S. government is picking winners.
You may like that, or you may not, but it's happening. When they do, stocks soar.
That being the case, I'd rather bank profits than complain that it's wrong. Knowing myself, I'll probably do both... But I won't leave money on the table like I did with Intel and the other stocks I mentioned above.
This time around, I'll keep my 2022 inversion thesis firmly in mind. I'll look for ways to exploit every Trump investment project and program for subscribers to The Ferris Report and Extreme Value.
That's a good thing in a way, because it gives me a clear direction, which we all need to make progress and become more skilled, knowledgeable, and effective.
As a taxpayer, I'm no fan of the Genesis Mission plan. But as an investor, I'm excited to look through that list of industries. It's like fishing in a stocked pond.
When I find the best stocks among the Genesis Mission industries, I'll most likely recommend them in The Ferris Report. That publication's whole focus is on finding great stocks to exploit important macro trends in the global economy and micro trends in particular industries.
Government-driven investment brings the macro and micro together... for a potentially supercharged trend opportunity. If you don't already have a subscription to The Ferris Report, click here to check it out.
Trump isn't just targeting specific industries...
Beyond Genesis Mission and similar programs, he also has a plan that'll add more fuel to the markets in general. It feeds the passive-investment trend that accounts for more than half of all U.S. stock market investment flows.
Trump's Big, Beautiful Bill was enacted on July 4, 2025, and among its many provisions was the creation of "Trump Accounts."
A Trump Account is a tax-deferred savings account for American children. Parents or guardians set up and manage the account until the child turns 18.
Families may contribute up to $5,000 annually (which increases annually at the rate of inflation starting in 2027). And workers can put in up to $2,500 of their $5,000 annual maximum contribution through a pretax payroll deduction... very much like a 401(k) plan.
For each child born between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2028, the government will start their account with a $1,000 contribution.
What's more... on Tuesday, computer entrepreneur and billionaire Michael Dell and his wife Susan donated $6.25 billion to the Trump Accounts program.
The Dells' contribution will seed up to 25 million more accounts with $250 apiece... for kids not born from 2025 to 2028. The cash will be available for kids aged 10 and younger who live in ZIP codes with median annual incomes below $150,000. Trump Accounts will become available for contributions starting on July 4, 2026.
The White House's announcement explicitly states how the money will be invested:
By law, Trump Accounts may only be invested in broad U.S. equity index funds that track the overall U.S. stock market (e.g., S&P 500), do not use leverage, and charge no more than 0.10% in annual fees.
The announcement names only one specific index – the S&P 500 – but says "funds" (plural). This suggests the government will simply buy a bunch of different S&P 500 index funds.
In other words, given the nature of market-cap-weighted index funds, the biggest chunk of Trump Account money will be invested in the largest-cap stocks in the market... the top 10 names in the S&P 500.
I don't approve of the government turning the S&P 500 into a retirement utility...
It exposes retirement savings to far too much risk. But it doesn't matter what I think as long as 401(k) plans, and now Trump Account holders, pour money into the index. All this demand will give it more consistent demand than any other aggregation of stocks on the planet.
The S&P 500 accounts for 80% of the market cap of the U.S. stock market. And the U.S. market accounts for about two-thirds of the value of all global stocks.
Yes, you read that correctly. The global stock market is better described as the U.S. stock market plus a few other countries' markets.
Putting a massive, relentless passive bid under the S&P 500 is huge important.
One day, it'll go into reverse, but there's no telling when that'll be. Baby Boomers are aging, but they've taught their kids to use 401(k) accounts. When Boomers become net sellers, successive generations could take up the slack... or not. We'll see. Until then, we'll all enjoy a nice tailwind in our brokerage and retirement accounts.
Between my recent bullish assessments of the AI boom and my newfound desire to exploit the government's ideologically driven capital allocation programs...
I've definitely changed some major views recently...
And that's what investing in public securities markets requires.
I've often heard the best traders say they have "strong convictions lightly held."
We're all human. It's natural to get excited about an investment idea that seems particularly compelling to you.
But the market doesn't care about your conviction and excitement. So you must be ready to turn on a dime. Learn the skill of recognizing when you're wrong. And even more important, muster up the emotional wherewithal to take action and adjust your portfolio accordingly.
I'm reminded of a quotation usually attributed to economist John Maynard Keynes:
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
Well, the fact is that the AI boom rhymes significantly with the nearly decadelong dot-com boom. Since the AI boom started just three years ago, I have to believe it's not over yet.
And the fact is that the Trump administration is picking winners among American companies, many of them publicly traded.
I still think the market is egregiously expensive compared with its history.
And I still hate the government sticking its nose into every aspect of our lives. It has destroyed the self-reliance for which Americans were once known, without which they could not have built the greatest country in the world.
But I recognize that I need to set those concerns aside. That will let me seize a fairly obvious and possibly huge opportunity to make substantial profits.
Neither trend is a sure thing. Nothing is certain in the stock market. But they're good odds-on bets at this point. I'll do my best to learn more about them so that I can take advantage... And you should do the same.
New 52-week highs (as of 12/4/25): Applied Materials (AMAT), BHP (BHP), Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE), Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 Fund (COWZ), Donaldson (DCI), EnerSys (ENS), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Fanuc (FANUY), Freehold Royalties (FRU.TO), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), Lumentum (LITE), Mueller Industries (MLI), VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund (MOAT), Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index Fund (ROBO), Seabridge Gold (SA), Skeena Resources (SKE), Tenaris (TS), and Vale (VALE).
In today's mailbag, we have feedback on yesterday's edition – which included subscriber feedback on the challenges facing small businesses and a take on U.S.-Canada relations and tariffs from "north of the border"... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I feel deeply for S.R. My father owned a small pharmacy in Indiana. He was very successful and very fortunate to sell the business and retire before the large pharmacies invaded the market. We are in a larger city. Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid took over the healthcare reimbursement market and ruined the small pharmacy markets in our community. Now they and some of the grocery stores are the only pharmacy resources left. I find it disgusting. Pharmacies are not the only small businesses suffering. I struggle with my own small CPA practice. Small businesses that are supposed be a major part of the U.S. economy are getting crushed. I feel the pain with you." – Subscriber Tim L.
"Farmers are heading into their third year of down markets. Bankruptcies are up significantly and commodity prices are low as global markets have gone elsewhere to buy soybeans. Input costs keep going up, particularly fertilizers.
"Main Street is hurting but rural is also hurting. Rob Spivey commented today about [Deere (DE)] on his 'stay away from' list. Whilst DE is global, the U.S. Farm market is still an important part of their business and very few if any farmers are buying new equipment..." – Subscriber David W.
"Interesting note from your Canadian audience... I do business with a number of Canadian companies in the life sciences sector and they still see value in working with a U.S.-based company (my current employer). Other industries are obviously a different story, but the Canadians have their own government to blame..." – Subscriber Scott P.
"It is probably very true that Canadians will not be visiting the United States for vacations, etc. However, I believe this will not apply in the field of medicine. My doctor brother (deceased) treated literally several thousand or more Canadians who could not get treatment, or treatment on any acceptable schedule, in their own country. That is the cost of government medicine. We should watch and learn." – Subscriber J.P.
"Corey/Nick, Just a quick response from my perspective on the comment from Jeff S. (Canada) in the Thursday 12/4 Digest.
"I live down in FL, and the community I'm from we usually have 5 to 6 guys that usually golf with us from Canada. All of them have returned and also a couple more guys have come down from Canada as well. Maybe it's not as Jeff's letter suggests for all Canadians. Just my observation from Sunny FL!" – Stansberry Alliance member John M.
Good investing,
Dan Ferris
Medford, Oregon
December 5, 2025