Live From Vegas: Gold's Warning Signal

The 23rd annual Stansberry Research conference begins... Day 1 updates from Las Vegas... Porter Stansberry on the deflationary bust ahead... What to do about it... How to invest in a 'multipolar' world...

We're live in Las Vegas this week...

Pardon the interruption from our "regular" Digest fare... But I (Corey McLaughlin) am in Las Vegas this week, along with the Stansberry Research team, some terrific guest presenters, and several hundred subscribers for our company's 23rd annual conference.

This is our biggest event of the year, and I always look forward to attending...

Not only do we get to connect with our colleagues and readers in person (I'm surrounded by them as I write this)... but we (and all attendees) are treated to jam-packed days of presentations from the brightest investing minds in the business.

After traveling from Baltimore yesterday and getting settled in at the Encore at Wynn, now we're off and running once again...

Nick Koziol and I will be writing to you from the conference rooms here in the heart of Vegas... Be sure to also follow Stansberry Research on social media for more live updates, like on Instagram here.

We'll be keeping tabs on the market, too (the S&P 500 Index closed up more than 1% today). But with so many unique investing ideas and topics being discussed among the personalities here, we have plenty to share this week from the conference alone.

Porter Stansberry kicked things off...

The Stansberry Research founder – who created this conference more than two decades ago – began the day's first presentation with this level set...

We, as you know, are at a really difficult time in the markets right now. We've really never seen anything like this. Everything has "melted up." Everyone is dying to get out of the dollar, including the world's central banks. You guys have seen what's happened with gold.

I've been writing about this moment since 2011 with the "End of America" thesis. The idea that America would lose its world reserve-currency status and there would be an outbreak of social chaos and political violence in our world. That's what we're seeing.

The questions to think about now are: What's next? And what to do about it?

Gold's warning signal...

Gold is up about 65% year to date, including another 3% today to near a record around $4,370. That's a positive thing if you own or have been trading gold... But as Porter said...  

Anytime you see gold up 50% in a year, it is a warning that there is going to be a massive crack-up in credit. People think that the 1979, the big gold bull run, was because of inflation. It really wasn't. It was because the gold market could see that the terrible recession of '81 was coming.

Today, he says gold's soaring price is another signal to note...

Gold is giving you a warning, but it's not the warning that most people think. It's not a warning about inflation. Inflation's already happened. Gold is giving you a warning that we're about to have a deflationary bust...

He's not saying that this bust "will last forever." But Porter predicts a very intense six to 18 months where "the prices of assets will fall dramatically," noting that home prices in parts of Florida have already fallen 20%.

The investing solution for this scenario – and any other, really – is to have an all-weather portfolio that can withstand anything. With that in mind, Porter shared his twist on the famed Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio.

Browne was an investment adviser who ran for president as a libertarian in 1996 and 2000. He said that most of the time, the world is in an inflationary boom... but no less important, there are brief periods of deflation that an investor needs to be ready for.

And as Porter said today, "nobody sees" the next deflationary period that's right around the corner.

A wave of unemployment will hit the U.S. over the next five years as new technologies eliminate existing jobs, Porter said. And he warned that bad debt tied to auto loans, consumer credit, office buildings, and multifamily real estate will be the pain points in the next credit crisis.

What to do about this...

Get ready for something you haven't heard in a while...

In a deflationary bust, cash and bonds will be assets that are worth owning. (Rather than owning bonds outright, Porter shared a better proxy with conference attendees here in Vegas and folks who are following along from home with a Livestream Pass.)

In this environment, it will also be essential to own high-quality stocks, held over the long term (and the longer the businesses have been around, the better, Porter explained). He also recommended a combined allocation to gold and bitcoin that makes up 25% of an investor's total portfolio.

The idea, Porter said, is to have a portfolio that can profit from "inflationary booms" and protect your wealth from the "inevitable deflationary busts, whenever they occur." And it's a simple one, that needs to be rebalanced only once a year.

This portfolio is just half as volatile as the S&P 500 – meaning smaller drawdowns than the "market." That's extremely important if you are in or near retirement and past your income-earning years, "which, by the way, I'm getting very close to," Porter said.

We're glad he's not there yet.

Moving on, there are going to be no 'bullies' in the schoolyard...

That was the message from BCA Research chief strategist Marko Papic in his presentation this morning, which followed Porter's. Marko, a regular at our conferences, this year dove into the three power dynamics in the geopolitics... which is squarely in the headlines these days.

He talked about unipolarity (one "bully" on the global stage running things, like the U.S.), bipolarity (two "bullies"), and multipolarity (no "bullies").

The world may think that the U.S. and China are the two bullies in the global economy right now. But Marko believes that we're headed for a long period of multipolarity for the first time since the 19th century.

In a multipolar world, there is no one clear leader. So Marko said this will lead to a "messy and violent" time. When no one's dominance goes unchallenged, everyone will fight each other.

As for what that means for the global economy... Marko named 10 "pillars" of multipolarity. Here are a few of them...

First, there won't be a drop-off in global trade, even if tensions are inflamed. In a multipolar world, trust among nations is low, even with allies, so they continue to trade with enemies.

We're seeing this already... Even with all the trade tensions, the U.S. and China still buy each other's goods.

Here's another example: Amid the tariff war, new supply chains are emerging with new trading relationships... While certain companies are moving manufacturing out of China, they're moving to countries like Malaysia and Vietnam.

Building these supply chains can temporarily boost inflation, but Marko says this investment will actually drive down prices over the long term.

The ongoing investment in semiconductor manufacturing is a great example...

Countries are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in domestic chip plants under the banner of "national security." But when all of these plants are up and running, they'll produce so many chips that prices will actually fall.

So Marko doesn't expect a second wave of high(er) inflation that many have feared.

In this multipolar world, Marko highlighted the potential in international assets as the world shifts away from the U.S.-led global economy. While he still expects U.S. stocks to rise, he believes there are better opportunities on a currency-adjusted basis in other countries.

And he's still bullish on real assets like commodities and gold, adding that he believes we're only about 75% through the current gold bull market. So there still could be room to run in both gold and gold stocks over the next few months or even years.

And that was just the start of Day 1...

On the main stage this morning, attendees also heard from tech journalist Kara Swisher. We'll have more from Swisher's entertaining Q&A with our Kelly Brown later this week...

Next came our friends Joel Litman of Altimetry (on the problems with conventional Wall Street accounting measures)... Marc Chaikin of Chaikin Analytics... and Luke Lango, senior investment analyst at InvestorPlace, who talked about his framework for investing in powerful AI trends, like what he called the spending "bazooka."

Stansberry Research editor Brett Eversole took the stage after lunch. Other afternoon speakers include Stansberry Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Austin Root, Seabridge Gold CEO Rudi Fronk, TwinFocus adviser David Daglio, and former Washington, D.C. mayor-turned-venture capitalist Adrian Fenty, plus a few more.

Other Day 1 activities include Pete Carmasino of Chaikin Analytics and Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond holding smaller, breakout sessions off the main ballroom.

We'll have more insights in tomorrow's edition.

But before we go tonight, some Las Vegas color...

Our suite overlooks the now-famous Sphere, the $2.3 billion immersive entertainment arena that debuted in Vegas a few years ago. A version of The Wizard of Oz can be seen inside with a ticket right now, but you can be constantly entertained for free just by looking at the thing from the outside...

Here's what I saw before I headed off to sleep last night... I'm officially in the Halloween spirit...

Wonder what it will see tonight.

Markets aren't just math. They're psychology.

In This Week on Wall Street, Matt Weinschenk dives deep into the emotional side of investing: fear, FOMO, greed, and regret. These aren't just buzzwords... They're the real reasons smart people lose money, bubbles form, and crashes always seem like they're happening for the first time...

Watch the video on our YouTube page, and be sure to like and subscribe to get more of our free video content. While you're at it, be sure to follow Stansberry Research on our social media channels, too.

New 52-week highs (as of 10/17/25): American Express (AXP), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Ciena (CIEN), Cencora (COR), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), Enel (ENLAY), iShares MSCI South Korea Fund (EWY), Gilead Sciences (GILD), iShares Biotechnology Fund (IBB), Kellanova (K), Monster Beverage (MNST), and Roivant Sciences (ROIV).

In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday essay, which explored how AI and ChatGPT work... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Dan, I find the better the query, the more focused and intelligent the question, the more useful and accurate the AI result. My hope, and belief, is that AI will make humans better at forming useful questions. That's how you advance the species." – Subscriber Roy E.

"I'm a computer nerd and a few years older than Stephen Wolfram. So without claiming to know more than I know about him, I would say he is doing a good job of explaining the ups and downs of AI.

"1. His description of how AI works is correct, accurate and precise.

"2. His criticism of the current AI landscape is correct and reason for it is amply evident.

"3. The misuse of AI, the LLMs and chat bots will continue, as there is no way to force people to apply logic to either their questions or the interpretation of the answers and responses.

"4. The current crop of AI products, programs and websites is easy to manipulate to get whatever results the user desires. Watch carefully and do your own evaluation and analysis.

"5. Develop a plan for how you use the AI systems.

"Here is what I do, at least in part.

"1. Tell the AI the underlying scope and boundaries of your inquiry. Say for example, 'For the purposes of the following questions only consider facts that are supported by trustworthy sources and websites...'

"2. Tell AI that you want two or more perspectives on the subject. Say for example, 'One view on this subject is blank and another view is other blank. Summarize these and other views in your response to my questions...'

"3. Ask for sources. Say for example, 'Provide sources for facts and figures that support your answers...'

"Then, pose your question.

"In some ways it is like doing a Google search. The more search parameters you give the search engine the more focused the results will be.

"Best wishes to you as you read Wolfram's book. I do enjoy your posts in the Stansberry Digest." – Subscriber Wayne S.

"AI is obviously an important development, but as an investor I don't need to hear about it every day... Fundamentals will always rule. Let's not get distracted by the new sparkly thing and concentrate on where the fundamentals lead our investments." – Subscriber Ted B.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Las Vegas, Nevada
October 20, 2025