Open for Nonsense
The government shutdown might be over soon... Back to a fully 'open for business' Washington... A 50-year mortgage, tariff 'checks,' and $4,100 gold... The same mistakes... What else to watch this week...
The federal shutdown appears to be on its way to completion...
It may have taken longer than even we anticipated, but it sounds like Republicans and Democrats in Congress are headed toward some kind of arrangement to fund most of the government again...
Yesterday, eight Democrats in the Senate voted along with Republicans for the first stage of a deal to reopen the government. This moved the idea along to the House, whose members are evidently scattered too far around the country to be productive today.
Here's CNBC.com...
House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday called for House members to begin traveling to Washington, D.C., so that they can vote as soon as possible on a Senate deal that would end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history...
Johnson indicated to reporters that he expected votes in the House to occur this week, but he did not state a specific day...
The speaker said he would issue an official 36-hour notice before the House votes.
Johnson said, "There'll be long days and long nights here for the foreseeable future to make up for all this lost time that was imposed upon us."
Poor little things... getting paid by taxpayers to work, and with "just" 36 hours of notice.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump demanded today that air traffic controllers "must get back to work, NOW!!!" or have pay "docked." This comes while they already haven't been paid for a month.
Back to business...
As the iconic Bill Bonner put it in his free newsletter earlier today, "The news this morning is that the shutdown is ending. This means the feds can get back to misgoverning in the usual way."
In that vein, a few proposals have emerged from the White House to address "affordability"...
How about 50-year mortgages? Trump floated the idea on Saturday on Truth Social. Within hours, U.S. Director of Federal Housing Bill Pulte posted on X that he was working on it – calling the idea "a complete game changer." There's a lot to unpack with this one, and we'll have more this week.
And about "tariff dividend checks"? Trump suggested that idea over the weekend, too. His idea involves paying out at least $2,000 per American, though "not including high income people!" To us, this sounds like stimulus checks all over again... We know how that turned out (with record-high inflation).
But there's a problem. What tariff revenue will these checks come from? (And, hey, what happened to those "DOGE dividend" checks from earlier this year?)
A large chunk of the White House's tariffs are on trial in the Supreme Court. As we discussed last week, possibly hundreds of billions of dollars of tariffs collected this year could be going back to businesses, large and small, if they're deemed illegal.
But not so fast, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a television interview on Sunday...
The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms and lots of ways... It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president's agenda. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility of auto loans...
So, we're looking at either lower taxes and more government spending and debt, or direct payments to Americans and more spending and debt. And we're talking about short-term fixes aimed at juicing economic activity... in spite of the long-term consequences they bring.
As we always recommend – whichever political party is floating bad economic policy: Protect your wealth, because nobody else is going to do it for you...
So welcome back to a Washington completely open for business. And, in the end, the dollar loses. But if you position your portfolio correctly, you don't have to feel the maximum pain.
The U.S. Dollar Index ("DXY") dipped back below its 200-day moving average today. Gold leapt almost 3% to above $4,100. Bitcoin is trying to stage a comeback from a 20% drawdown from an all-time high in early October, trading now around $106,000.
Stocks might be turning around, too...
The major U.S. stock indexes were up across the board today, with the benchmark S&P 500 up 1.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gaining more than 2%. We hesitate to make too much of one day's market action, but this happened today with some important context...
Regular readers know we're skeptical about some parts of the AI boom/bubble, and many AI-related stocks have been punished lately. And yet, while the S&P 500 and other major indexes have recently hit significant "oversold" levels, they've held strong above important indicators.
The S&P 500, for instance, is still above its short-term 50-day moving average and about 13% above its 200-day moving average. Today, Nvidia (NVDA) gained nearly 6% and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) led all S&P 500 stocks, up almost 9%.
As our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond wrote in his Weekly Market Outlook this morning... since April, S&P 500 futures "have been moving upward in a narrow, low-volatility funnel pattern." He shared this chart and wrote...
You can see what I mean about the low volatility...
Whenever they rally, they bounce off the resistance level (the upper black dashed lines). And whenever they drop, they bounce off the support level (the lower black dashed lines) and the 55-day moving average (the lower blue line).
Greg also wrote to Ten Stock Trader subscribers about the two momentum indicators along the bottom of the above chart and how they might suggest "short-term turning points" to take advantage of. That's exactly what he did after the market opened with a bullish options trade.
On tap the rest of this week...
Apart from the shutdown likely concluding, earnings season rolls on. We'll have a report on CoreWeave (CRWV) – which operates data centers designed to take on AI demand – in tomorrow evening's edition, and we'll keep tabs on other notable companies...
A plethora of Federal Reserve officials are due to make public speaking appearances this week. They started today with Stephen Miran, Trump's handpicked choice to serve on the Fed's policy committee several months ago.
In a television interview, Miran said a 50-basis-point cut at the Fed's meeting in December "is appropriate..." while a 25-point cut "at a minimum" should be announced. As of today, though, federal-funds-rate futures traders have lowered the odds of any December cut to around 60%.
The AI boom is reshaping the stock market, but which companies will come out on top? In This Week on Wall Street, our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk breaks down the true AI winners and losers emerging from the latest earnings season. Discover why Alphabet (GOOGL) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) are his top picks for the AI era, and what the data reveals about companies like Meta Platforms (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR).
Watch the video on our YouTube page, and be sure to like and subscribe to get more of our free video content. While you're at it, be sure to follow Stansberry Research on our social media channels, too.
New 52-week highs (as of 11/7/25): Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU), American Express (AXP), BP (BP), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Cencora (COR), Donaldson (DCI), Enel (ENLAY), EnerSys (ENS), Kellanova (K), Lumentum (LITE), Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund (NAC), Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), and Sprott (SII).
In today's mailbag, we have feedback on Stansberry Research senior analyst Gabe Marshank's recent presentation to launch his newsletter, Market Maven... and thoughts on part of Dan Ferris' Friday essay and what we do at Stansberry Research... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Thanks for adding [Market Maven]. The 'Shark Tank' treatment with Doc, Whitney and co. reminded me of capex meetings in my previous life. The meeting was called DEC (Decision Executive Committee). ALL stakeholders were present. To move forward, the vote had to be unanimous. I voted against Mexico moves for two years. It forced the move to protect U.S. facilities and especially tribal knowledge." – Stansberry Alliance member Mike E.
"Dan, I really appreciated the last part of your Friday letter about the services at Stansberry. Something that always irritates me a little bit is when financial newsletter publishers tell me I should learn X, Y, and Z if I want to be a good investor. The problem with that advice is that I simply don't have time for X, Y and Z. I have a full-time job, a boatload of church and family responsibilities, and I still have to sleep. Which is precisely why I'm paying you (The Ferris Report), Doc (Retirement Millionaire), and Whitney (Stansberry's Investment Advisory) for your recommendations. I pay for these services for the same reason I hire a plumber or an electrician, or an auto mechanic. If I had time to learn all those skills, I'd do those things myself.
"My financial knowledge circle is small right now (although, I've learned a lot from you guys), so I'm grateful to have each of you in that circle with me." – Subscriber K.Y.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
November 10, 2025