The Last Penny

New Fed-speak sinks stocks... Rate cuts aren't a certainty... Warren Buffett's 'worldly wisdom'... The last penny... It's not trivial... How to beat government-driven inflation...

It's a 50/50 shot now...

It turns out, more rate cuts really are "not a foregone conclusion," as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned last month.

A handful of Fed members have been making public appearances this week, and the general tone around rate cuts is one of pause – even among some Fed members who were previously in favor of more cuts.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said today that the decision about a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting is "premature."

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, "We have inflation that's still too high running at about 3%."

And yesterday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said there is a "relatively high bar" for monetary policy easing in the short term. Collins told a bankers' conference in Boston...

Absent evidence of a notable labor market deterioration, I would be hesitant to ease policy further, especially given the limited information on inflation due to the government shutdown.

Hearing all this, fed-funds futures traders have dropped expectations for a rate cut at the central bank's next meeting in December to a roughly 50/50 shot. This is down from almost certain expectations about a 25-basis-point cut last month, and a 70% chance of it last week.

Oh no! What about easier money?...

The major U.S. indexes fell today, with the benchmark S&P 500 down 1.6%, the more-interest-rate-sensitive small-cap Russell 2000 Index was down nearly 3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index down 2.3%. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which just hit a new record yesterday, lost 1.6% today.

As for what comes next, we've been seeing signs of a weakening labor market in private jobs data since the government shutdown... and we've told you about mounting layoff announcements from U.S. companies. The labor market isn't as strong as it has been over the past few years. But it sounds like inflation worries are becoming more prominent again.

Looking ahead into 2026, the idea of the Fed "on hold" could catch a lot of people off guard. Many folks have been expecting a steadily lower rate environment to continue. It will probably still happen – eventually, when President Donald Trump replaces Powell as Fed Chair in May – but that's about six months from now.

In the meantime, with opinions potentially split on the Fed voting board, policy might come down even more than usual to what Powell prefers, and he has tended to be more gun-shy on letting inflation run higher since the great "transitory" debacle of 2020 and 2021.

Moving on, to some famous (almost) last words...

As we reported earlier this year, Berkshire Hathaway CEO and all-around investing legend Warren Buffett is retiring at the end of this year... and a few days ago, he penned what could end up being some parting words in his annual Thanksgiving letter.

It's worth a read.

The 95-year-old Buffett covered a lot in the letter, like how he plans to donate $1.3 billion of Berkshire shares to four family foundations, his thoughts on Berkshire's transition to new CEO Greg Abel, and how he feels about his own health ("To my surprise, I generally feel good," he wrote).

But, as our Stansberry's Investment Advisory lead editor and a Buffett acolyte, Whitney Tilson, wrote in his free e-letter two days ago, the best part of Buffett's note was the end. Buffett dispensed his best "worldly wisdom," as his former business partner Charlie Munger called it...

• "Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes – learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them."

• "Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it."

• "Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it's hard to beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior."

• "Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the Chairman."

• "It's never too late to change."

• "Remember to thank America for maximizing your opportunities."

• "Choose your heroes very carefully and then emulate them. You will never be perfect, but you can always be better."

I'm listening, Warren.

Lastly, today, a sign of the times...

Yesterday, at a production facility in Philadelphia, the U.S. Mint stamped the last penny (for the next few years, at least). Before pressing the button to do it, U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach was asked if he had any last words for the one-cent pieces...

"We're going to save the taxpayer $56 million," Beach said.

And with that, goodbye to new pennies. At the direction of Trump, the government will no longer make the one-cent pieces that have been around for about 230 years, since each one now costs about four cents to produce.

According to the Mint, the costs of copper (which have made up only 2.5% of the penny since the early 1980s) and zinc would cost the government $56 million annually. With 300 billion pennies already in circulation, the government thinks it makes sense to stop making them.

But there's more to this story than some simple logic...

First, $56 million is low-hanging fruit in the grand scheme of America's $38 trillion debt. Second, saying goodbye to the penny should receive more than a trivial one-line send-off. It says something big about the erosion of the value of dollars... and cents.

After all, copper and zinc haven't changed all that much over the decades, but a lot else has, like the government's desire to "print" new dollars to "fix" things, which makes existing currency worth less each time. The penny would still be worth making, if not for that.

It's all relative...

In our fiat currency world, I'm often reminded of a scene in the 1990 movie Days of Thunder.

Tom Cruise portrays a young, hotshot race car driver named Cole Trickle. Robert Duvall is his veteran crew chief Harry Hogge. The two butt heads over the right way to drive without burning up tires during a race.

During one race, Hogge questions Trickle over the radio in his helmet about driving too fast, thinking he's likely to blow some tires. Cruise's character responds, "Harry, I'm not going faster. Everyone else is going slower." It was true. His lap times showed it.

That's how I feel about investing in a world where the dollar and other fiat currencies keep depreciating, and pennies have become obsolete. (Nickels, by the way, also cost more than five cents to make. Try closer to 15 cents. Are they goners next?)

In this environment, it's imperative to own high-quality, in-demand assets (be it stocks of cash-producing businesses or hard assets like gold and real estate) and to be consistent about it in a diversified portfolio.

It's amazing how valuable this simple framework can be as fiat currency crumbles because of inflation. Your long-term returns will show it.

New 52-week highs (as of 11/12/25): Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), American Express (AXP), Barrick Mining (B), ProShares Ultra Nasdaq Biotechnology (BIB), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Ciena (CIEN), Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE), iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy Fund (DBMF), Donaldson (DCI), Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund (EMD), EnerSys (ENS), EQT (EQT), Equinox Gold (EQX), iShares MSCI Italy Fund (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Fund (EWP), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Fund (EYLD), SPDR Euro STOXX 50 Fund (FEZ), Franklin FTSE Japan Fund (FLJP), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), iShares Biotechnology Fund (IBB), IQVIA (IQV), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Markel (MKL), Mueller Industries (MLI), New Gold (NGD), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), SandRidge Energy (SD), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), Travelers (TRV), Vale (VALE), Vanguard FTSE Europe Fund (VGK), Telefônica Brasil (VIV), and Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV).

In today's mailbag, thoughts on 50-year mortgages, which we wrote about yesterday, plus feedback on a note in yesterday's mail... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"For quite some time people have been buying cars with a longer term [loan]. They are buying the payment without regard to price or interest paid. Then they find themselves upside down. No worries, roll the loan amount into your next car loan!

"With a 50-year mortgage, once again people will go for it because they are buying the payment. Imagine... the two biggest purchases that most people make, and you are upside down for the rest of your life..." – Subscriber Rob C.

"The new American dream: buy a house at age 22 & have it paid off just in time to retire at 72." – Stansberry Alliance member G.F.

"Something does not add up. If, as you posit, 'Demand for homes is strong, while housing supply remains nearly nonexistent.' This is prima facia evidence that we do not need lower interest rates. We need more housing! CLEARLY, with demand as strong as you have said, high interest rates have not tempered demand significantly.

"What I do see is that the higher the loan percentage, the more we borrow sales of goods and services from future years. And borrowing from 50 years of future will perpetuate tepid economic activity for decades more than the current 30-year loans. Frankly, credit is a bad thing for future economic activity. It increases the standard of living TODAY at the expense of a better standard of living TOMORROW, and it does so invisibly..." – Subscriber Mike M.

"A much better idea would be to require some form of assumability of sellers' mortgage. Also, seriously raise taxes on single family residence investment groups..." – Subscriber William V.

"Couldn't agree more with Mark T's comment about working hard, living frugally and being blessed. I retired at 62 three years ago by working hard, investing wisely (Stansberry played a big part in that), living within my means, and most importantly being blessed. Funny how so many people who want to live the American dream seem to forget that." – Stansberry Alliance member Nicholas P.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
November 13, 2025