The Tariff Story Isn't Over Yet

Editor's note: It might seem like tariff worries are in the past...

But according to Stansberry's Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase, the real impact of this tariff chaos hasn't sunk into the markets yet.

In today's Masters Series, adapted from the June 13 issue of the DailyWealth e-letter and August issue of Stansberry's Credit Opportunities, Mike talks about the potential long-term effect of President Donald Trump's imposed tariffs...


The Tariff Story Isn't Over Yet

By Mike DiBiase, editor, Stansberry's Credit Opportunities

The "tariff tantrum" feels like distant headlines...

On April 2, President Donald Trump's Liberation Day announcements put the markets in flux. The S&P 500 Index fell 19% from its February high following the announcements. And the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 24%.

But then Trump reversed course and hit "pause." He delayed the tariffs on most countries and backed off on his heaviest tariffs as a negotiating tool.

He has since negotiated lower tariffs with many countries. The president struck a temporary deal with China, lowering the tariffs on some Chinese goods to 55% with a minimum 30% rate.

The S&P 500 Index is up 35% and the Nasdaq is up 50% since their April lows. Both now sit at all-time highs.

Folks no longer seem as worried about tariffs. But they should be...

We haven't seen the full effect of Trump's tariffs yet. Once we do, they will only stoke a flame that has already started.

Let me explain...

Trump has imposed tariffs on about 90 countries so far this year. Most went into effect at the beginning of August. So the real impact is only being felt now.

These tariffs increased the average effective U.S. tariff rate to around 19%, according to Yale University's Budget Lab. It's the highest tariff rate in nearly 100 years.

Goldman Sachs estimates that U.S. companies have absorbed nearly two-thirds of the increased costs so far. But this "tariff cushion" won't protect the U.S. consumer forever. Goldman thinks that by the end of the year, two-thirds of the cost will be passed on to consumers.

Plus, the temporary deal with China ends on November 10.

So despite all the headlines over the past few months, we still haven't felt the full effect of Trump's tariffs yet. And we're likely to see more tariff fireworks in the months ahead.

The new tariffs will drive up prices further on many consumer goods. We'll also likely see inflation surge higher in the second half of the year. That will continue to squeeze already struggling Americans.

Consumer prices were already headed higher...

The consumer price index ("CPI") spiked to 2.9% in August. Core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is running even hotter, at 3.1%.

Not only is this above the Fed's 2% target, but it's going in the wrong direction. The CPI has increased every month since bottoming in April at 2.3%.

That means interest rates are likely headed higher, despite the Federal Reserve's best efforts.

In fact, since the Fed began lowering the short-term interest rate it controls last September, long-term Treasury interest rates have increased. Long-term rates affect consumers and businesses... the cost of credit card, car, home, and business loans have gone up.

We've already seen more corporate bankruptcies through the first seven months of this year than any year since 2010.

So don't be fooled by the stock market. The underlying economic pressures haven't subsided. The fallout from Trump's Liberation Day announcements is just getting started.

The tariff story isn't over.

Good investing,

Mike DiBiase


Editor's note: Risking your money in stocks amid this elevated market uncertainty is an unnecessary gamble. According to Mike, a massive opportunity is developing in the bond market that could be the bargain of your lifetime...

He says it's due to an incoming "fire sale" on Wall Street that's going to flood the market with billions – potentially trillions – of dollars' worth of heavily discounted bonds. And if you start preparing now, Mike believes you can earn triple-figure gains moving forward.

That's why he just went on camera to detail exactly what you must do to capitalize on this rare setup. Learn more here...

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