In This Episode
In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Brent Johnson back to the show. Brent is the CEO of Puerto Rico-based Santiago Capital and creator of the famous "dollar milkshake theory." He has more than 13,000 subscribers on the Santiago Capital Substack.
Brent kicks things off by expressing his optimism for the U.S. and believes that, despite the supply-chain issues the country is facing, it will make the changes needed to come out of the crisis. That's not to say that there won't be pain along the way, but Brent says it will be better than most people expect. Additionally, he says that criticisms of the U.S. and the dollar are valid, but relative to other countries, they're in a much better position than their peers. And he tells listeners that you can still buy gold without being bearish on the dollar...
You don't have to hate the dollar, and you don't have to think the dollar's going to collapse, and you don't have to think the United States is going to go into the Great Depression to own gold. In fact, I have argued for a long time that a strong dollar is, in the long term, the best thing for gold. I don't see them as the mortal enemies that many do. And in some ways, they're complementary.
Next, Brent says that there's no need to be worried about gold overtaking the dollar as a reserve asset in central banks. A key contributor to that has been gold going up while Treasurys have gone down. But Brent's research shows that on a global scale, government bonds have been falling across the board. (The exception is China, due to companies not wanting to buy Chinese stocks or real estate and getting tax breaks from buying Chinese bonds). Brent then explains how the dollar will become broken the stronger it becomes, which would create more pressure on countries that have debt in dollars and could lead to a currency crisis and a great credit reset. And he shows how the U.S. could weaponize the dollar against companies that are indebted to it...
This is how the United States can use the dollar as a weapon... If they can put other countries under pressure, they can then negotiate better terms. And so if they raise rates or if they withhold supply or if they don't extend a swap line and a country comes under pressure because they can't afford to go buy those dollars that they now owe, that's weaponizing the dollar against that country... I think for much of the last 40, 50, 60 years, this process was managed for the greater good, and they didn't necessarily have a lot of strings tied to this monetary liquidity. But going forward... we're moving into this environment where we're not cooperating with the rest of the world the way we used to.
Finally, Brent criticizes the mentality that it doesn't matter which fiat currency you're holding, because they're all going to crash. He says that folks who work, own businesses, or have exposure to the geopolitical landscape should care about fiat levels. A sharp rise in one currency compared with another has been a key component in every global financial crisis over the past 50 years. And Brent states that the order of the currency declines matters. Folks who retreat from the market out of fear could be missing out on all the opportunities that happen before a major crash occurs...
The order of the dominoes matters, and it matters a lot... These games can go on for a very long time. I literally know people who haven't gotten back into the market since 2008 because "the next crisis is just right around the corner." And listen, it's not that they're totally wrong. There are a lot of bad things out there that could go really, really wrong... But that's almost 20 years ago now. And this could go on for another 20 years before it all comes down. Maybe it goes on longer than that... I think it's incredibly important to understand the problems and think about them. But it's also not healthy to only focus on the problems and not see the bigger picture.
Click on the image below to watch the video interview with Brent right now. For the audio version, click "Listen" above.
(Additional past episodes are located here.)
The transcript is coming soon.
This Week's Guest
Brent Johson is the CEO of Santiago Capital. His previous experience includes auditing at Philip Morris Management, nine years at Credit Suisse's private client group, and nine years as a managing director at BakerAvenue, where he was the lead adviser for several of the firm's largest clients.
Brent is also a member of the Advisory Board for Monetary Metals, a platform that allows investors to earn a yield on gold, paid in gold, by leasing and lending to qualified precious metals businesses in the industry. He regularly gives interviews and speaks at conferences regarding precious metals, currencies, and macroeconomic trends. Additionally, he's well known as the originator of the "dollar milkshake theory," and his views have been quoted in numerous print, online, and television outlets.