Diesel pumps that can't count high enough... The 10-year Treasury breaches 5% again... Copper prices hit a record high, with AI driving a chunk of it... The 'real things' boom includes weapons... Joel Litman's next move on the defense supply chain...
It's 'hot' out there...
This morning, a batch of fresh economic data showed services and manufacturing activity – and costs – are at their highest levels in years.
These "hot" numbers come from an early look at S&P Global's widely followed Purchasing Managers Index for September.
The good part? Rising economic activity, at the highest level in more than five years.
The concerning part? Manufacturing and services costs were the highest in nearly four years, and prices have been trending this direction for months.
Today, this "flash" report – not quite final for the month of September, but an early indicator – showed inflation is becoming a prevailing characteristic of today's economy... and markets. And it wasn't the only signal...
Today, the 10-year Treasury yield, reflecting growth and inflation considerations, breached 5% again. It's trading at an almost two-decade high of 5.11% as we write.
The major U.S. stock indexes were lower, with all major sectors but energy declining.
Expectations for another interest-rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October meeting jumped by about 15% today – to almost 70% – following comments from a senior Fed official, Michael Barr, who said higher rates are the right idea.
Oh, and oil prices were higher again today.
For those following along with "where are we in a rate-hike cycle?" it increasingly looks like "just the beginning."
As S&P Global Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson commented in his firm's report this morning...
This growth is being accompanied by some of the most severe supply chain bottlenecks seen in the near-two-decade survey history if the pandemic is excluded, with companies also reporting increasing problems finding suitable staff.
Supply-chain bottlenecks... Problems finding staff... We've seen this before, and we remember it well. In 2020 and 2021, backlogs created constricted supplies of all kinds of things and led to higher inflation – especially with "stimulus checks" and near-zero interest rates.
Today, the war in Iran is disrupting global energy and critical commodity supplies. That's pushing up prices. As Williamson continued...
Firms' input costs have meanwhile jumped in September at the steepest rate for four years, with fuel and transport costs spiking higher thanks to the rise in oil prices seen during the month, which will add further to the upward pressure on selling prices and inflation in the coming months.
You probably feel this in your everyday life...
Yesterday, my (Corey McLaughlin's) wife came back from the grocery store and remarked that "everything was expensive."
This morning, the diesel price at the pump was $6.46 per gallon at our local station. I just shook my head... then gratefully filled up my non-diesel vehicle with other gasoline.
Others aren't so lucky, like truckers, farmers, or businesses in other industries that are an everyday backbone of the U.S. economy. They're dealing with higher costs that, one way or another, impact the U.S. consumer and the economy at large.
President Donald Trump said yesterday he is considering banning diesel export, intending to lower prices in the short term.
In California, some gas stations have maxed out diesel prices at $9.999 on the gas pump register, only because they don't have an extra digit to go to $10. The pumps weren't designed with double-digit dollar prices in mind. Talk about a sign of the times.
I'm sure you have your own observations. Let us know what you're feeling and seeing at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
New highs for copper...
Yesterday, copper hit an all-time high of $6.83 per pound. It's part of a strong uptrend for the metal. Copper is up about 27% from its 2026 lows in the early days of the Iran war, and up more than 45% over the past 12 months.
Typically, when copper prices rise, it's a good sign for the economy. That's why it's called "Dr. Copper" – as a sign of the economy's health.
Rising copper prices indicate strong demand. And since copper is used in just about everything, that gives us a good idea of what's going on in the economy.
But in this case, rising prices are also saying something about supply...
This week, data from the Shanghai Metals Market showed that Chinese copper inventories hit their lowest level since 2023. S&P Global reported that the country has even turned to using more scrap metal because of a shortage of higher-quality copper.
This isn't just a China story. Take a look at this chart from the Financial Times...
In short, starting next year, there's expected to be a growing global deficit of copper. Longtime readers know this is something we've been tracking for years. Our colleague Dan Ferris has specifically warned about it in these pages and his paid publications.
In the first half of 2026, copper production fell from the same period in 2025, thanks to production halts at some of the world's largest mines, due to factors like weather and worker accidents. In the case of the Escondida mine in Chile – the world's largest copper mine – there was a planned decline in "concentrator feed grade," or the percentage of pure copper that enters its processing mills.
Meanwhile, copper demand is projected to grow 50% by 2040.
By the end of the decade, wealth-management firm Bernstein estimates that demand for copper will outpace supply by more than 2 million metric tons.
By S&P Global's math, copper production will fall about 25% short of demand in 2040. That's pretty simple math for "the price will go up."
AI is a huge part of the demand side of the equation...
As Commodity Supercycles editor Whitney Tilson and his team detailed in their July issue, data centers use a lot of materials that are critical to the rest of the economy. From that issue...
Data centers require massive amounts of electricity, water, and copper as the computers inside work around the clock. As AI gets more powerful, each rack of servers can use as much power as several homes. And that power demand will just keep rising.
Every time an AI model gets larger and more complex, it needs more chips, more memory, and more storage.
Carrying that extra load means more racks of servers, more power lines, more cooling units, and more construction.
According to the Copper Development Association, AI data centers can use up to 3 times as much copper as a traditional data center. And by 2030, AI data-center demand for copper could reach 500,000 tons.
That means AI data centers alone may account for almost 20% of the global copper deficit.
In the most recent Commodity Supercycles issue – published earlier this month – Whitney, along with analysts William McGilton and Brian Tycangco, recommend four metal and mineral stocks that are going to benefit from AI. Two of them are direct plays on the trends we just described in the copper market.
Existing Commodity Supercycles subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can read the full report and access these recommendations right here.
The 'real things' boom...
The ironic part about an AI bull market is that (along with government-aided inflation), it has provided the backdrop for the growing value of "real things," like copper, electricity, and water.
Another real-world thing growing in value? Weapons.
With the yearslong war in Ukraine and the almost seven-month conflict in Iran and the Middle East, we've been writing about America's need to restock and reimagine its munitions and defense supplies.
Trump acknowledged this yesterday during his speech at the United Nations, saying that the U.S. is replenishing its weapons stockpiles "fast," as we reported yesterday.
The U.S. spending bill for 2027 will likely increase the defense budget to more than $1 trillion, the largest amount ever.
As Joel Litman, chief investment officer of our corporate affiliate Altimetry, says, America's military leaders and defense contractors are meeting soon to discuss resupplying and rebuilding the nation's military. That will send trillions of dollars into the sector in the coming years.
From an investing standpoint, this is a huge opportunity...
Joel isn't focused on the well-known "Big Five" defense contractors, but smaller companies that the government could turn to for help beefing up the military supply chain. These companies' shares could soar as they become household names.
As I wrote earlier this week, we know few people who are more plugged in to the defense world than Joel. He has consulted at the Pentagon and with the FBI. And his world-renowned forensic-accounting research reveals what's really going on with businesses' balance sheets.
Joel will go live tomorrow with the full details about what he sees coming for the U.S. military and the companies worth owning. Our colleagues Whitney Tilson and Dave Lashmet will join him, too. Sign up for free here to make sure you don't miss out.
One more thing...
Don't forget our annual Stansberry Research Conference & Alliance Meeting is coming up next week, Monday through Wednesday.
If you're not going to be with us in person at the Aria Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, you can still be "in the room" with a Livestream Pass – as our editors, friends, and special invited guests share top investing ideas and recommendations.
You'll hear from folks like highly sought-after tech expert Dan Ives, biomedical physician Dr. David Agus, bestselling authors, CEOs, entrepreneurs and innovators, and more. Even Henry Winkler ("The Fonz") will give a talk this year...
I've been flipping through one of Agus' books – The Book of Animal Secrets – about what humans can learn about being healthier from the way animals live in the wild. It's a fascinating read.
He'll be signing copies of his book in Vegas. And during his presentation, expect him to dive into the exciting trends happening in the medical world today.
If you can't be there, a Livestream Pass is the next best thing. Get yours today.
New 52-week highs (as of 9/22/26): Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (EWJ), Franklin FTSE Japan Fund (FLJP), Illumina (ILMN), Cloudflare (NET), and Okta (OKTA).
In today's mailbag, some more thoughts about our writing style... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"The Digest length, content and format are good just as they are. Corey, Nick, Whitney and Dan do a great job providing meaty topics with just the right amount of elaboration. Most Digests can be 'digested' in 3 minutes or less. Suggest you ignore the threatened social media posts." – Subscriber Paul H.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Thanks.
"I think Corey McLaughlin's 'bring it on' response to Vincent W's criticism is probably the right one, but I think observations that posts are 'too long' may stem from the expense of paper and ink needed to print them out. A lot of people still seem to do this in order to be able to read them away from the computer screen, so there may be value in providing a bottom-line summary somewhere close to the beginning, or at the very end, of your posts..." – Subscriber Robert M.
"Your style is perfect. Don't change a thing." – Subscriber Wayne W.
McLaughlin comment: Perfect? I don't agree with that, but thanks for the sentiment.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
September 23, 2026
