A timeless truth... The data that boosted stocks today... What to watch from the Fed... The Fed just 'rang the bell'... Make sure to listen... Mailbag: More of your 'skilled labor' feedback...
More of your feedback...
Your emails on the need for "skilled labor" in America continue to flood our inbox, and we're sharing more of your notes in our mailbag section at the end of today's issue.
But before we discuss some other topics, I (Corey McLaughlin) want to begin today with one note on the labor subject that came in overnight. It's from subscriber Lowell L., who wrote...
Having followed along with the discussion on blue-collar versus white-collar jobs over the past few days, I think one quote sums it up perfectly.
Decades ago, in his 1961 book, Excellence: Can We Be Equal and Excellent Too?, John W. Gardner captured the essence of this debate beautifully:
"The society which scorns excellence in plumbing as a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy: neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water."
This conversation brought the quote rushing back to me, many years after I first read it. Today's circumstances certainly make Mr. Gardner seem prophetic.
I would say so. The words are profound and, yes, entirely applicable today, almost 65 years later. Thanks, Lowell, for taking the time to share the quote with us. On we go, trying to hold our water... And keep your notes coming to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
Today's inflation data gave markets a boost...
Moving on, we wrote yesterday about the idea that the Federal Reserve might not lower rates further, at least until a new Fed chair is installed next May... and that the bond market is signaling concerns about high(er) inflation potentially returning.
Well, those fears have been dampened – at least for a day...
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its consumer price index ("CPI") data for November, after a brief delay because of the government shutdown. And it was exactly what investors wanted to see...
In November, the CPI rose 2.7% on a year-over-year basis – well below the Wall Street consensus estimate for a 3.1% increase. And core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, "only" rose 2.6% year over year in November, versus the expectation of a 3% increase.
For headline inflation, it was the "coolest" increase since August. And on a core basis, it was the slowest rate of inflation since March 2021 – right at the start of the pandemic-era spike higher.
The market cheered this data, even though a closer look shows it's not a complete picture because of the government shutdown.
So it's true again: Inflation numbers being in line with expectations (or below them, like today) means more expectation that the Federal Reserve can continue cutting rates and providing more "juice" to markets.
The S&P 500 Index moved higher in pre-market trading following the inflation report, and the U.S. benchmark index gained around 1% by closing.
But the Fed hasn't "won" the war on inflation just yet. An annual increase of 2.7% is still well above the Fed's target of 2%. And inflation could very well pick up again as the recent round of rate cuts makes its way through the economy.
So the threat of stagflation – high inflation plus a weakening economy – is still there.
Just look at the labor market...
In the past few months, inflation worries have taken a back seat to labor market data. The Fed has been focused on the worsening jobs market – and for good reason, as our colleague Mike Barrett explained in his weekly update to Select Value Opportunities subscribers yesterday...
We've been chronicling the weak employment situation for most of 2025.
What was a surprise was [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell's characterization of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' ("BLS") payroll data since April... He believes reported figures have made employment look far better than it really is. Specifically, Powell said the addition of about 40,000 jobs per month, on average, since April is likely closer to a loss of 20,000 jobs per month.
So long as the jobs market continues to look like it's weakening, or inflation meaningfully picks up, the idea of lower rates will still be on a lot of investors' minds. Even so, they're not a panacea…
Our colleague Gabe Marshank has some thoughts...
Stansberry Research senior analyst and Market Maven editor Gabe Marshank wrote to Digest readers back in March with his concerns about AI data-center operator CoreWeave (CRWV). And after what Gabe viewed as a lackluster initial public offering, he warned Market Maven subscribers about the company in depth in late October...
The company buys chips from Nvidia (NVDA), puts them into its data center, and rents them out. CoreWeave expects it will generate $5 billion of revenues and spend $20 billion in capital expenditures this year.
That's not a great model!
Now, bulls hope that eventually spending will slow and revenues will rise. But that seems awfully optimistic. More likely, CoreWeave is renting its chips too cheaply... and losing money on every transaction.
The market seems to have caught on, as CoreWeave shares are down more than 50% since we published this report.
Today, Gabe is back to share another important development.
Earlier this week, he sent us his thoughts about the "Fed ringing a bell" that most investors are ignoring.
I'll let Gabe take things from here...
The Fed made a market-changing decision last week... and you probably didn't even notice...
You'd be forgiven. It wasn't in the headlines much, and even the most seasoned market analysts missed it... (Though we highlighted it in last Wednesday's Digest, the day it happened.)
It's momentous, and it has the potential to drive the market for the next several years.
Remember, the Fed met last week and announced it was lowering interest rates by a quarter percent, or 25 basis points. The move, which was widely expected, was the third rate cut in the last three meetings.
The meeting was seen by most observers as contentious. Most of the reaction focused on the path forward for rates. For most of Powell's era at the helm of the Fed, the meetings have had unanimous votes.
This time, three of the Fed governors dissented – the most who have done so at a meeting since 2019. But while the media made a big fuss over the short-term voting trends, it missed a much more momentous shift...
The Fed announced that it's restarting quantitative easing ('QE')...
This is the technical name for when the Fed buys government bonds. The goal is to add money to the system to enhance liquidity and reduce interest rates.
As longtime readers know, the U.S. started using QE in the wake of the financial crisis in 2008. It tapered off by the middle of the next decade but then started again in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, with QE running from 2020 to 2022.
The Fed's balance sheet grew from around $4.2 trillion in February 2020 to a peak of nearly $9 trillion in April 2022.
Then the Fed began reversing policy. While it didn't sell its portfolio of bonds, it did allow them to mature and didn't replace them with new ones. This had the effect of "running off" the portfolio.
But now, QE is back.
Of course, the Fed hasn't admitted that. It says it's simply conducting "reserve management purchases." As we wrote last Wednesday...
The Fed also announced that it would begin buying $40 billion in short-term Treasurys to ease stress on money markets, and added that purchases will "remain elevated" for a few months.
This is like a kid saying, "I'm not having ice cream, I'm just conducting blood sugar management." We all know exactly what this is. But what matters more is what it signals.
The first experiment in QE was in response to a near-total meltdown of the financial system in 2008. The second was during a global pandemic in 2020.
But this is in response to nearly nothing...
The economy is showing some mixed signals – GDP is holding up while jobs are clearly weakening – but nothing suggests a crisis is underway.
Rather, the Fed is tipping its hand that its ability to manage the economy is weakening dramatically.
The Fed's main weapon is to adjust short-term rates. Its bazooka has historically been QE. Both of those now seem ineffectual, as the Fed has restarted QE not in a full-blown crisis, but as lower rates haven't had the notable economic boosting effect that many expected.
The bell is ringing...
We are now in a new, post-Fed era. The key stimulus for the economy is no longer going to come from the monetary policy that it sets.
So today, I am looking at two key factors instead. First, federal government spending. In an era when monetary (Fed) policy loses impact, the next line of defense is fiscal (government) spending. Second, the AI-driven boom in capital spending is an enormous portion of economic growth.
That gives us an easy marker to watch.
Nvidia (NVDA), the largest company in the world, is also the best pure play on AI.
Currently, the stock is trading below its recent highs. That's a big yellow light flashing for the economy.
If NVDA trades back up and makes new highs, that's a green light to take on further risk. We'll keep watching, but for now, the signals are cautious.
The Fed, with the QE restart last week, is admitting it's losing power, and as we've reported here in the Digest, other areas of the economy are feeling tapped out as well. As we head into 2026, invest with caution.
In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan Ferris and I (Corey) welcomed Luke Lango, senior investment analyst at our corporate affiliate InvestorPlace. We talked about what to watch in AI in 2026, including why "custom chips" will be a big story in the new year... and the risks he sees tied to the emerging trend.
Click here to watch our entire interview on our YouTube page... or listen to the audio version on our website or wherever you listen to podcasts, like Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Audible. Just search "Stansberry Investor Hour" and subscribe to get more episodes when they go live.
New 52-week highs (as of 12/17/25): Valterra Platinum (ANGPY), Barrick Mining (B), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), New York Times (NYT), abrdn Physical Palladium Shares Fund (PALL), Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), Royal Gold (RGLD), RenaissanceRe (RNR), Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), and TKO Group (TKO).
As mentioned at the start of today's Digest, we have more of your feedback on the need for skilled labor in America in the mailbag... Do you have thoughts? Send your notes to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Speaking of skilled labor and college grads, nobody coming out of college with a degree is 'skilled' in their major. Newly graduated engineers, for example, with a diploma think they are qualified for a job and are asking for a salary that is typically commensurate for those with experience. Consequently, I will not hire a recent grad who is asking for such a high salary. Perhaps new college grads should consider a lower, more reasonable salary to get employed, gain some experience and let their success (or lack thereof) dictate their future raises and salary... These new grads are asking way too much as a starting salary!" – Subscriber J.A.
"I completely disagree with Tim L.'s comments regarding student loans.
"We should not reward someone for making a major mistake in life by asking the taxpayers to bail them out. When you do something stupid, you need to feel the pain, learn from your error and work hard to correct the situation.
"Really enjoy your emails. Please keep up the good work." – Subscriber David M.
"I was very happy to receive your issue on 'trades' training. It is not just the $$$$$. People's bodies and mental health depend largely on keeping moving and actually producing something physical...
"The happiest 'retired' people I know get out and help their neighbors with 'do it yourself' projects. Any society decays and dies when the ideal of doing nothing fully takes hold." – Subscriber Cassandra A.
"Hi there, I don't know about you, but when I was in high school, we had automotive class, carpentry, and electrical classes. By the time my son was in high school, they canceled all those classes because of lack of funds.
"Carpentry taught you how to build a house and electric taught you how to wire it. Automotive taught you how to work on cars and how to build a motor from the block up.
"Seems we should be funding that for our high school students now for teens who don't fancy an academic career. Plumbing and welding included. Wouldn't hurt to teach them how to cook and balance a checkbook even if they don't use one." – Subscriber Larry M.
"Colleges may teach useless skills but their bigger problem has NO solution. There are not enough persons born in 2008, 2009, etc. to fill the openings in those colleges which will force a large lowering of requirements for entrance. Many colleges will disappear as a result...
"A related thought: skills such as you suggest we should invest in are certainly valuable to society. A good plumber (I have one) is a blessing, but those skills are unlikely to fuel an advanced society. Those who have advanced degrees because they have advanced mental ability will invent things we haven't thought of yet and will be those who the next generation will invest behind successfully..." – Subscriber Paul O.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol and Gabe Marshank
Baltimore, Maryland and Berkeley, California
December 18, 2025
