Midterm Election Day is here... Data-center bulls are watching the races closely... AI is still driving economic growth... Oracle goes back on its word... Job openings now outweigh the unemployed...
Midterms are here...
In today's U.S. elections, control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate is up for grabs, as well as gubernatorial spots in 36 states.
As of 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, Democrats had a 78% chance of controlling the Senate and a 95% chance of controlling the House, according to predictions market Polymarket.
The expectations are that Democrats will win both chambers of Congress, but not by enough to have a supermajority in the Senate. So we could very well be headed for gridlock in Washington. And President Donald Trump has already said that he plans to veto any bills that a Democrat-controlled Congress would send to his desk.
We'll have to wait and see how things play out. But no matter what happens today, with the uncertainty of the elections out of the way, folks will have one less thing to drive their investing decisions.
Data-center bulls are watching the races closely...
According to Reuters, data-center moratoriums are on the ballot in 10 states. In total, there are 41 separate data-center measures being voted on today. And many of those are in just one state...
Ohio – a big market for data centers – accounts for 21 of those 41 measures. According to data-center project tracker Cleanview, Ohio has 278 data centers either in operation, under construction, or planned. That ranks it fourth out of any state in the U.S., trailing only data-center hotbeds Virginia, Texas, and Pennsylvania.
We've already seen statewide bans or project halts in Texas and New York. While none of the data-center issues on the ballot today would be statewide measures, they could go a long way toward hampering further data-center construction.
As we've written in these pages, public opposition to AI and data centers is growing. Whether it's from safety issues, noise concerns, or rising electricity bills, folks are getting fed up.
According to a September poll from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, only 11% of respondents support building data centers in their community, while 65% of folks oppose their construction.
We'll get a clearer idea of just how big of an impact midterms will have on the data-center build-out as results start to come in tonight. But this is one more potential headwind for the AI boom.
That could be bad news for the broader economy...
As we've written, AI is a huge part of the U.S. economy. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP rose 3.4% in the third quarter. According to the Center for Economic and Policy Research, AI accounted for 1.78 percentage points of that number. Said another way, AI investment made up more than half of all economic growth in the third quarter.
Yesterday's construction-spending report was more evidence of just how important AI is to the broader economy...
In September, construction spending fell 1.9%, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. That marked the largest month-over-month decline since April 2020 – when the economy ground to a halt in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Private residential construction was a huge drag – falling nearly 9% from the same month in 2025 (we last covered the problems facing housing construction in the October 20 Digest).
On the surface, private nonresidential construction was a bright spot – rising more than 2% from September 2025.
However, AI drove the entirety of nonresidential-construction sector growth...
Office construction – which includes data centers – rose more than 5% from August. And it soared nearly 40% year over year in September. Inside the "office" segment, data-center construction soared at an annualized pace of more than 200% year over year over the past three months.
After a brief blip to start 2026, data-center construction has soared every month since February. Not only has that kept construction spending afloat – we're seeing it boost the entire economy. But that tailwind can evaporate quickly if more data-center moratoriums are put in place.
Watch what hyperscalers do, not what they say...
In March, Oracle (ORCL) – which we've called the "canary in the AI coal mine" – said that it would not need to raise capital again in 2026. As we wrote in the March 11 Digest...
After posting strong third-quarter earnings last night, Oracle execs suggested on the company's earnings call with Wall Street analysts that they don't plan to borrow more money, this year at least, beyond what the company has already announced.
But last week, the company said it plans to raise an additional $20 billion between now and 2030. And yesterday, the hyperscaler and software giant filed to raise $20 billion for its AI infrastructure projects. Half of that will come from new debt, and the other half will come from issuing new stock.
As we've written, investors are getting more selective with how they distribute AI capital. As Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz shared on social platform X this morning, debt from the tech sector is now yielding more than the average investment-grade bond.
"As investors get increasingly nervous about the total amount of AI [capital expenditures], they're demanding a greater premium to own tech debt," Abramowicz wrote.
Oracle is no different...
Oracle filed to offer $10 billion in shares at $116 per share. That's an 11% discount to the stock's closing price of $130 on Friday.
That tells us one thing... Oracle isn't confident that there will be demand at its Friday share price, so it had to lower the offer price to ensure that it can raise what it wanted.
The story is the same on the debt side...
As part of its debt raise, Oracle is offering two-year bonds at 7%, 10-year bonds at 8%, and 20-year notes at 8.65%.
That's 2.4 percentage points higher than the yield on the two-year Treasury, 3.1 percentage points higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury, and 3.3 percentage points higher than the 20-year Treasury yield, respectively.
In short, Oracle is having to raise capital itself – at higher rates – to fund its AI spending plans. It's like what we've been saying for weeks...
Lenders are tightening their purse strings when it comes to AI. And if they do lend, they're demanding a higher return. As long as that continues, the cost to fund AI infrastructure projects will become more of a burden for companies like Oracle. At some point, that burden could be too much to justify endless increases in AI investment.
Closing with a stronger jobs report...
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey ("JOLTS") report for September. Job openings rose to 7.52 million, up from 7.19 million in August and above Wall Street's estimate of 7.15 million openings.
Not only did job openings come in higher than Wall Street expected, but the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons is now above 1 – meaning that there are now more jobs available than folks looking for jobs.
That's a good sign that businesses are looking to hire and grow... and it could keep the unemployment level low.
But the jobs data isn't finished this week...
Tomorrow, we get payroll processor ADP's estimate for private payroll change. And on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate data. That might fill the "volatility void" with midterm elections behind us.
New 52-week highs (as of 11/2/26): Arch Capital (ACGL), American Financial (AFG), Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG), American Water Works (AWK), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Exelixis (EXEL), FactSet Research Systems (FDS), Global Payments (GPN), Jacobs Solutions (J), Coca-Cola (KO), Lonza (LZAGY), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Nucor (NUE), Pfizer (PFE), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Public Storage (PSA), Ryder System (R), Republic Services (RSG), SharkNinja (SN), Visa (V), Veralto (VLTO), and State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP).
In today's mailbag, questions and answers about where to find Dan's new book and why oil and energy stocks have been moving conversely to gold prices and miners lately... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I cannot find the book Capitalism in Crisis by Dan Ferris." – Subscriber Ronald D.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Well, we can help you out.
Dan's existing The Ferris Report subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find the book here. For everyone else, you can get a copy by starting a subscription to The Ferris Report today. Click here to hear more from Dan and learn how to get started.
"I, now more than ever, am enjoying reading Stansberry Research. I became an Alliance member awhile back and am so glad I did.
"Here is my question that may be answered in part by many of the analysts I follow: Why are the energy holdings and precious metals in my portfolio inversely correlated? On a daily basis they move in opposite directions." – Stansberry Alliance member Jeffrey G.
Matt Weinschenk comment: The "why" is always tough in markets. But here's what we see happening.
Oil and gold (and oil producers and gold miners) both deal in hard assets, so you'd think they would move together. They often do. But the relationships between assets often change over time.
Right now, oil's driven by war. It goes up on conflict, and down on peace – as you'd expect, given the war's dramatic influence on oil production and transport. That part is simple.
At the same time, gold has the opposite reaction to conflict... at least in the current war in Iran.
Fear is driving up the dollar as a safe haven... and a stronger dollar means weaker gold. Early in the conflict, Turkey sold a lot of gold reserves to shore up capital to maintain its currency. And rising interest rates, in general, make gold less attractive.
Normally, a bigger war can push gold prices up if people are scared for the stability of modern life. But the Iran conflict has been more or less contained (for now) and few people are worried the banks won't open tomorrow.
So we have a fairly unique dynamic pushing these commodity plays in different directions.
All the best,
Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
November 3, 2026
