Mr. Market Throws Another 'Tariff Tantrum'
We've seen this before... Trump's Greenland threat spooks the market... A familiar catalyst for 2026... Natural gas prices shoot higher... Long-term tailwinds for the energy sector...
When the market opened this morning, it was reminiscent of last March and April...
Over the long weekend, President Donald Trump's new tariff threats against U.S. trading partners dominated the financial headlines.
In short, the White House says it wants to "own" Greenland in the interest of national security. And Trump says European countries that don't support a U.S. purchase of the Danish territory will face higher tariffs.
In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump said that eight NATO members' U.S. imports will face an additional 10% tariff by February 1 and a 25% tariff on June 1 unless "a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland."
And, today, U.S. stocks were broadly lower.
We've seen this before...
Well, not these details exactly. But you likely remember the initial tariffs of 2025 against Mexico, Canada, and China related to fentanyl trafficking. Then there were the "reciprocal" tariffs against more countries in Europe and elsewhere.
The White House made big threats about these tariffs before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other officials made "deals" with lesser tariff rates or relating to other issues that might be on the negotiating table.
After Trump "paused" the highest tariff rates when the bond market acted out of order after his Liberation Day announcement, the market acted like the worst-case scenarios were off the table... and further threats weren't met with much reaction by the second half of 2025.
After almost falling into a bear market last February through April, the benchmark S&P 500 Index made new all-time highs by June.
Perhaps, on a smaller scale, this dynamic will play out this time as well. On the subject at hand, the U.S. could end up with a larger military presence in Greenland or access to more resources, rather than making the territory another U.S. state.
Trump is already set to meet in person with European leaders in Davos, Switzerland this week at the World Economic Forum. I (Corey McLaughlin) expect to hear plenty more news from there. If some deal is reached, today's downward market action could be temporary.
But in the meantime, the market isn't waiting around for answers...
The CBOE Volatility Index jumped to around 20 today, its highest level since November, on concerns of a renewed trade war and its consequences – like growth concerns, capital leaving the U.S., or the idea of higher inflation and interest rates becoming reality.
And the major U.S. stock indexes were all down today. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index and benchmark S&P 500 were each about 2% lower today.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.3% and the 30-year Treasury yield rose above 4.9%, their highest levels since early September.
And the "chaos hedge" of gold made new highs. Gold gained almost 2% to a record high of around $4,760. Silver edged a little higher, too.
The U.S. Dollar Index also fell a bit – a familiar story over the past year that has benefited foreign stocks. Coincidentally, this is a trend and a massive opportunity that Stansberry Research senior analyst Brett Eversole just shared with True Wealth subscribers last week.
The big question now is, how long will this tariff volatility last?...
In other words, are tariff threats back to taking on prominence like they did last spring, or are the fears of today going to be considered empty threats by tomorrow, next week, or next month?
We shall see. We could soon have a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of "reciprocal" tariffs, which might answer the question for good. In the meantime, as our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond wrote to his subscribers in an intraday update...
Stocks and bonds are both down, while interest rates are up.
This is where things get very interesting, because it's no secret that Trump wants lower rates.
Some European countries have come out and said they would start selling U.S. bonds (which would raise interest rates) as retaliation for Trump increasing tariffs.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may use this as a reason to NOT cut interest rates. (Plus, take into account that Powell's term is up in May.)
Back in late 2025, I mentioned the "theme" for 2026 was January and then April/May being important. You never know the "why" ahead of time when it comes to time-cycle analysis, but it seems the catalysts that will play out over the next few months are taking shape right now.
The longer a renewed trade war goes on, and the more uncertainties that emerge about it, the more days like today we might see in the market.
Elsewhere, energy prices have shot up on higher short-term demand...
Today, natural gas prices soared – up 8% to around $3.90 per million British thermal units ("MMBtu") – on forecasts of a winter storm that will bring significant snow and ice to more than two dozen states in the central and eastern U.S. through this weekend, including here in Maryland.
That means likely higher demand for heating and electricity in the week ahead. So commodity traders and investors are looking to get ahead of the surge in demand, betting on higher prices down the line.
Now, the natural gas market is prone to huge swings in prices. Some people on Wall Street call it the "widow maker," because incorrect bets can "kill" you in a short time (like anyone who was short natural gas today). But it goes both ways. If this weekend's storm isn't as bad as feared, today's price action in natural gas could reverse just as quickly as it jumped.
However, natural gas still has some long-term tailwinds...
Our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk wrote about this on Friday as part of one of his predictions for 2026 (of this being a year for energy prices and energy stocks to take off).
In the January issue of Commodity Supercycles, editor Whitney Tilson and his team also laid out their bullish case for natural gas. And it has nothing to do with short-term demand from the weather.
The first tailwind is something we've talked about before in the Digest – demand from artificial intelligence ("AI"). From Whitney and his team...
Today, data centers account for around 2% of all electricity usage in the U.S., according to the [Department of Energy]. But research center Berkeley Labs says they could rise to 12% of total U.S. consumption by 2029.
While that demand will serve as a tailwind for all energy sources, building new solar, wind, and nuclear facilities will take years – or even decades. That leaves natural gas, which accounts for more than 40% of all U.S. electricity generation, to benefit in the near term.
More from the Commodity Supercycles team...
Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects data centers to drive 3.3 [billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d)] of natural [gas] demand in 2030. Take a look...
With natural gas in such high demand, it's a great time to own companies in the space.
The second tailwind comes from U.S. exports. With countries looking to lower their reliance on Russian gas in the years following the invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has stepped up to fill that void.
At the end of the day, more and more countries are relying on U.S. natural gas to power their economies. As Whitney and his team wrote...
The U.S. is the biggest liquefied natural gas ("LNG") exporter in the world. And the country's LNG exports are set to surge in the coming years... from 12 bcf/d in 2024 to 15 bcf/d in 2025, and then to 16 bcf/d in 2026.
More exports mean a higher natural gas price at home.
Both of those are strong reasons to be bullish on natural gas stocks in the coming months.
Whitney and the team have about a dozen oil and gas-related stocks open as "buys" in the Commodity Supercycles model portfolio right now, along with a host of more picks that are poised to benefit as demand for energy grows in the decades ahead.
Commodity Supercycles subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find the latest recommendations here, and if you're interested in getting access, click here to learn more and get started with a subscription today.
Finally, if you're in the path of the winter storm this week, we hope you stay warm – and that it doesn't cost too much to do so.
On this week's episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Brad Thomas from our corporate affiliate Wide Moat Research explains why now is a great time to invest in real estate investment trusts ("REITs")... details one company primed to meet the "silver tsunami"... and shares one "boring" sector that provides stable and predictable income.
Click here to watch the episode on our YouTube page... or listen on our website or wherever you listen to podcasts, like Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Audible. Just search "Stansberry Investor Hour" and subscribe to get more episodes when they go live.
New 52-week highs (as of 1/16/26): First Majestic Silver (AG), Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML (ASML), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Brady (BRC), BWX Technologies (BWXT), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Donaldson (DCI), WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund (DFJ), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), EnerSys (ENS), iShares MSCI South Korea Fund (EWY), FirstCash (FCFS), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Freehold Royalties (FRU.TO), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), VanEck Gold Miners Fund (GDX), VanEck Junior Gold Miners Fund (GDXJ), Hubbell (HUBB), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), Kinross Gold (KGC), Lincoln Electric (LECO), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), LXP Industrial Trust (LXP), Mueller Industries (MLI), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Natural Resource Partners (NRP), Realty Income (O), OR Royalties (OR), Royal Gold (RGLD), Roche (RHHBY), Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index Fund (ROBO), Sprott (SII), Skeena Resources (SKE), Torex Gold Resources (TORXF), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U-U.TO), Uranium Energy (UEC), State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), and State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor Fund (XSD).
In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday essay... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Dear Dan, WOW... just WOW!!!!! What a warm, insightful and welcome post! Thanks so much for being the man you are and also confirming my recent decision to renew. I have and continue to take your council to heart. Thank you!!" – Subscriber Ken K.
"Dear Mystery Speculative Investor, Who are you, and what have you done with the real Dan Ferris?" – Subscriber Gary D.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
January 20, 2026