Episode 429: Use Common Sense and Avoid the Echo Chamber

Use Common Sense and Avoid the Echo Chamber

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In This Episode

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Chris Irons to the show. Chris started writing about finance back in 2013 under the moniker Quoth the Raven and was a speaker at the 2019 Stansberry Conference.

Chris kicks things off by addressing tariffs and shares how nominal prices will continue to rise regardless of what we do. He says the cycle of crashes and money-printing has continued to accelerate and create bigger distortions and drops. And he discusses passive bids that pile into the S&P 500 Index and cause valuations to become stretched. He warns against overexposure to the fund due to potential drawdowns in any of the "Magnificent Seven" that could take the index down with them...

Every once in a while... things happen, something unexpected happens, a key person at the top dies, or a company commits fraud, or there's some type of major product liability or something... [It] could be the impetus for exactly what sets off a cascade lower just by virtue of its weighting in funds like these. And so we're really in a situation where we're putting so many of our eggs all in seven baskets. And that's frightening.

Next, Chris states that the market has gone "all in" on options instead of equities, creating a state of leveraged gambling. And he predicts that things have changed so much that despite the beliefs that there will continue to be government bailouts or other solutions, this cannot continue. Something will break eventually. However, it's not all doom and gloom. Chris says you just have to find where there's good value...

I'm not a pessimist, I'm just trying to put together a clear picture of exactly where we stand based on common sense and not from this echo chamber that you see... [They're] just making excuses on why people should be buying now, which is a ridiculous thing to do because these people are... backfitting [their] thesis as to why we should buy to the ridiculous price, instead of looking at the price and making up their mind.

Finally, Chris shares advice on how to hedge any large market crashes based on his own strategies. He also cautions against buying into assets in blind hope of reaching a bottom. If a company is burning money without generating any cash, there won't be a bottom to bounce off of...

What people don't realize, and a lot of dip buyers don't realize, is that when you're buying something that is burning cash, or you're buying something pre-revenue, or you're buying something that's unprofitable, or you're buying something that doesn't have any, you know, that's an insolvent on its balance sheet, essentially, there is no bottom... And with insolvent companies and companies that don't generate cash, they will die when the market pulls back. And that's just how it goes.

Click here or on the image below to access the interview with Chris in video format. To listen to the full episode, visit our website or wherever you get your podcasts.

(Additional past episodes are located here.)

The transcript is coming soon.


This Week's Guest

Chris Irons started writing about finance and "pulling the curtain" back on the B.S. of the industry under his moniker Quoth the Raven in 2013. Since then, he has been quoted in the Wall Street JournalFinancial Times, and Barron's, has made SeekingAlpha's list of Top Bloggers, Forbes' 100 Twitter Accounts in the Financial World to Follow, and has shared the stage as a speaker with acclaimed investors David Einhorn, Andrew Left, Ben Axler, Jon Najarian, and many others.

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